The demands of uninterrupted 100-day protests remain unchanged, with the opposition continuing to call for new parliamentary elections. They assert that preparations for elections are already underway. How and in what manner new elections should be called was outlined in a five-point plan presented by Georgia’s fifth president, Salome Zourabichvili. Meanwhile, part of the opposition is discussing unification, believing that defeating the government through collective efforts is possible. Simultaneously, they continue working with the West to sustain the policy of non-recognition of the current government.
The ruling party, however, remains unfazed by either sanctions or protests, continuing to tighten laws in all directions. Can the opposition force the government to call new elections? Does it currently have the political leverage to do so? Analyst Vakhtang Dzabiradze discusses these and other issues with Front News.
– More than 100 days of protests have passed in the country. The opposition claims that, for now, they have succeeded in maintaining the West’s policy of non-recognition, effectively isolating the government from Western allies. The European Union continues its sanctioning policy against the ruling party, with the Baltic states particularly active. Additionally, some opposition members traveled to the UK, where they are advocating for sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili. How do you assess the opposition’s activity?
– Of course, this work is meaningful, and they are taking the right approach. Our allies must be aware of what the people think and what the opposition is doing. I cannot predict the full extent of its success, but some results are inevitable. The Baltic states, in particular, understand the threats well and recognize the dangers of Russian influence. They know firsthand what the Russian sphere means. Historically, both the Baltics and Georgia fought for independence.
Although our paths diverged, they remain our most active supporters. As for the broader Western response, things are progressing normally, though I am not referring to the United States. At present, the entire US political elite is focused on Ukraine, leaving little room for Georgia in their agenda. In this regard, the opposition has taken the right steps. The policy of non-recognition continues, and if the EU as a whole cannot agree on sanctions, then individual states should follow the example of the Baltic nations.
– However, the government seems indifferent to sanctions. We have seen statements from Georgian Dream suggesting that sanctions are merely an attempt to blackmail them, and they claim such efforts will not succeed. They remain dismissive, saying, “Let them write whatever they want.” What impact will these sanctions have, and how will they affect the country’s domestic politics?
– Sanctions will undoubtedly have an impact on Georgia, because our issue will soon become highly relevant in the West—whether Georgian Dream likes it or not. This will happen when negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine begin. Georgia’s position will be directly tied to Ukraine’s fate in these discussions. Where Georgia stands in this geopolitical realignment will be crucial.
It is essential that, alongside Ukraine’s security, our own security remains a relevant issue. This is why the opposition’s work on sanctions and the policy of non-recognition is so important. Domestically, the government must not assume that the protest momentum has dissipated and that public discontent has vanished. Nothing has disappeared. Once this geopolitical crisis subsides and the government can no longer use the Ukraine war for propaganda, the situation will change dramatically. This is why Georgian Dream is rushing to pass restrictive laws that curb freedom of speech and expression—because they anticipate that public dissatisfaction will eventually erupt again.
– At this stage, Georgian Dream has successfully used geopolitics to influence domestic politics. Even the opposition has had to acknowledge that the ruling party effectively leveraged the war narrative during the election campaign. Now, the government is presenting US foreign policy changes as being aligned with its own stance. Georgian Dream frames Western sanctions and tensions as part of a geopolitical struggle, claiming they are being punished for refusing to open a second front. Do you think the opposition can counter this propaganda?
– Once the Ukraine issue is resolved, the government will no longer have the war as a talking point. While they may have previously used this narrative successfully, the resolution of the war will have direct consequences on Georgia’s internal politics, rendering the government’s rhetoric obsolete.
The fact remains that the US alone will not be able to settle the war issue with Russia. Whether they like it or not, Washington and Moscow will have to include Ukraine and Europe in ceasefire negotiations. This means that Europe will also have a seat at the table.
We, too, must ensure that Georgia is visible in these discussions. The closer we are to Europe, the greater the likelihood that Georgia’s issues will be considered in broader negotiations. Georgian Dream wants to portray this as solely an American problem, but that won’t work.
However, the opposition must also address its weaknesses. Even among those who protest daily on Rustaveli Avenue, there is a lack of trust in the opposition. This is a major problem. While it is true that the opposition lost the propaganda battle to Georgian Dream—both before and after the elections—opposition leaders still have access to media platforms and social networks. The problem is not just delivering information; the problem is trust. The opposition has failed to earn the trust of neutral voters. They have not managed to engage with people on a personal level, addressing real concerns.
– The fifth president, Salome Zourabichvili, is trying to present a plan, advocating for opposition unity and a common strategy for achieving new elections. However, some opposition members have rejected her five-point plan, with some even dismissing it as nothing more than a ceremonial toast. Does the opposition refuse to recognize Zourabichvili’s leadership? How do you perceive her role domestically?
– Zourabichvili has a much stronger presence abroad than she does domestically. This is not just about opposition dynamics. Whether one agrees with her plan or not, she is at least raising the issue. The real problem is that the opposition lacks direct communication with the people. They have not gained public trust. The opposition lacks figures who are seen as credible authorities among the people. Most citizens are not concerned about election procedures; they are concerned about everyday problems, and they want politicians to address these concerns with tangible solutions.
The opposition has media access, but look at the guests they feature. Many of them are either former government officials or long-time opposition figures who have failed to achieve results. When former United National Movement leaders speak about human rights, it angers the public—it feels disingenuous. This damages the credibility of opposition-friendly media as well.
The opposition must rethink its strategy. Sitting on TV and attacking the government won’t solve anything. They need to acknowledge their own shortcomings and find solutions.
– Some opposition figures, like Strategy Aghmashenebeli leader Giorgi Vashadze, argue that unity is the only solution. They believe the opposition must join forces to defeat the government. However, wouldn’t such unity make it easier for Georgian Dream to brand the entire opposition as United National Movement supporters?
– Yes, broad unity could backfire. Look at the people representing the opposition in the media. I repeat: the United National Movement currently has around half a million supporters, but they have failed to expand beyond this base for 12 years. Their appeal has stagnated.
What is needed now are new faces and new energy. This period of upheaval may produce new leaders. The Georgian political landscape desperately needs fresh leadership. Many current opposition figures lack public trust, and Georgian Dream exploits this effectively.
For real change, opposition leaders who are easy targets for government discreditation must step back, allowing space for credible new voices. Only then can the cycle be broken.
Elza Paposhvili
