An Azerbaijani passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan may have been struck by fire from a Russian air defense system, according to discussions circulating among social networks, Russian military bloggers, and security experts.
The speculation arose after video footage from the crash site revealed damage that some suggest is consistent with an anti-aircraft missile strike.
The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed on the morning of December 25 near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan. The crash occurred after failed landing attempts at Grozny Airport, due to heavy fog, and at Makhachkala Airport in Dagestan, due to adverse weather conditions.
Reports indicate that 67 passengers, including citizens of Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, were aboard. As of late December 25, authorities confirmed 38 fatalities, with 29 survivors hospitalized. Azerbaijan’s prosecutor’s office reported a different figure, stating 32 survivors.
One survivor claimed to Russian media that an explosion occurred, though not inside the plane. Investigators are exploring multiple theories, including a possible collision with a flock of birds or a technical malfunction.
Notably, the crash coincided with Russian air defense operations in the North Caucasus to counter Ukrainian drone attacks. However, no airspace monitoring services have confirmed missile involvement.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who returned to Baku from Russia and canceled participation in the informal CIS summit, cautioned against premature conclusions about the cause of the disaster. He stated that an investigation would clarify the circumstances.
Azerbaijan has declared December 26 a day of mourning to honor the victims.
