US President Donald Trump claims that a fundamental framework for an agreement between the warring countries has already been developed, including the distribution of territories. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded, “Discussing territorial issues in negotiations will be difficult.”
Trump’s representative, Steve Witkoff, has also commented on Ukraine’s NATO membership, stating that while Ukraine cannot become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, discussions on security guarantees are possible.
Where do ceasefire negotiations currently stand? Is there a possibility that Ukraine will be forced to make concessions? And does Putin genuinely want a ceasefire? Giorgi Khatiashvili, an international relations expert and doctor of political science, discusses these and other issues in an interview with Front News.
– Despite negotiations with Putin and an agreement not to attack energy infrastructure, Russia continues to bomb Ukraine’s energy facilities. What is happening? What do you think is Putin’s goal? Many believe he is simply buying time. What is your impression?
– Trump wants the war to end quickly, but in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that is impossible. As for Putin and his plans, he is, of course, stalling for time. His army is advancing on the front lines, so a complete ceasefire does not benefit him. That is why he does not outright reject Trump’s proposals. Instead, he thanks him and pretends to agree while continuing active military operations on the battlefield. Putin does not want a unilateral and immediate ceasefire; if he agrees to one, it will be on his terms. That is why the process is being prolonged.
In general, negotiating a ceasefire is already extremely complex. However, the agreement on refraining from attacking energy facilities is at least a step forward. Whether it is being implemented is another question, but for the first time in three years, we are seeing some tangible progress.
– Many observers feel that even Putin himself is uncertain about whether to end the war or continue it. On one hand, he has built a massive military-industrial complex, with huge financial investments and business commitments. On the other hand, the Russian population is growing weary of the war. Do you think Putin is stuck in a deadlock and does not know what decision to make?
– Putin believes that if the war does not end now, he will gain a strategic advantage. He sees that Ukraine is struggling just to maintain its current level of Western support. Trump is not planning to continue aiding Ukraine for the next two years, and there is no real readiness in the US to sustain the war. This will become clear if Putin refuses all agreements and does not halt hostilities—only then will we see whether the US doubles its support.
Yes, Russia faces many internal problems, but despite everything, its military machine is operational, and shutting it down suddenly would be very difficult. If the war stops, Russia will face new challenges on the domestic front. War allows for financial and logistical maneuvering; halting such a massive military operation would be problematic in peacetime. It would also trigger internal political and economic shifts in Russia. That is why Putin is trying to gain something more—something he can present as a victory to the Russian people. For now, there is no sign of an imminent ceasefire.
– A frequently asked question is what Ukraine might have to concede in exchange for a ceasefire. Recently, even American officials have suggested that Crimea is lost and that Ukraine will not return to the pre-2022 or pre-2014 status quo. Does this mean Ukraine must give up its occupied territories—especially the four regions Putin has already incorporated into Russia’s constitution?
– The reality is that Ukraine will likely have to freeze the situation de facto. For example, Korea has remained in a frozen conflict for 70 years without a formal peace treaty. The most the Trump administration can currently achieve is to halt hostilities along a specific line. However, it is unimaginable for any Ukrainian government to legally recognize Crimea and the four regions as part of Russia. There is speculation that the US might officially recognize Crimea as Russian territory, but I find it hard to believe that Washington would take such a step. As of now, there is no discussion of legally recognizing the occupied territories.
– Europe has been demanding a role in the negotiations but has yet to secure one. Talks about a ceasefire remain limited to the US and Russia. Historically, Putin has never considered European leaders as equals in negotiations. Do you think Europe has been excluded from these talks altogether?
– The current situation shows that the US has a decisive role. While Europe provides significant humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the bulk of military assistance comes from the US Whether Europe likes it or not, America plays the biggest role in supporting Ukraine’s war effort. Additionally, the US has a major influence on European security policy. The US is the only country with enough leverage to pressure both Ukraine and Russia. For now, negotiations remain between Washington and Moscow. We will have to see how things develop and what role Europe will ultimately play.
– There is speculation that Trump sees Putin as a counterweight against China. Some believe Trump wants to realign Russia with the West to use it as leverage against Beijing. Meanwhile, China continues to support Russia economically, albeit discreetly. Do you think this is a real strategy on Trump’s part, or is it just one of the reasons for his relatively lenient stance toward Putin?
– Yes, the argument that Trump might be trying to pull Russia away from China to weaken their alliance makes sense. For the US, China is the primary global competitor, and it would be beneficial for Washington if Russia were left without a strong ally.
However, the feasibility of such a plan is questionable. Putin understands that US presidents change, and no one knows who will come after Trump. The next administration might revert to a hardline anti-Russian policy. Given this uncertainty, Putin is unlikely to abandon a reliable partner like China for the sake of temporary Western goodwill. Despite its so-called neutrality in the war, China has been secretly supplying Russia with critical resources, including semiconductors. A strategic split between Russia and China is highly unlikely. Trump may have this goal, but Putin is not naïve—he is playing his own game. The question is, who will outmaneuver whom? Much depends on that.
– As you mentioned, Trump wants a quick resolution to the war. If he realizes that Putin is deceiving him and merely buying time, what measures could he take against Russia to push for a ceasefire?
– For now, Trump is trying to get Putin to take at least some steps, even minor ones, toward peace. However, if he realizes that Putin is determined to prolong the war, his stance will shift. He will likely increase pressure on Russia, impose even harsher sanctions, and change his rhetoric. We will have to wait and see how events unfold—many significant developments are still ahead.
Elza Paposhvili
