Kramatorsk: In October, the Verkhovna Rada voted for a number of bills on reintegration of Donbas, the main one was introduced into the parliament by the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. The law is designed to create “the necessary conditions for a peaceful settlement of the situation in certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.” In particular, it is a matter of establishing a special order of self-government in the uncontrolled territories of Donbas to create the necessary conditions for the deployment of the UN peacekeeping mission. What “pluses” and “minuses” will bring the introduction of peacekeepers in the area of ATO in an exclusive interview with Front News International told the head of the Civil-Military Cooperation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexey Nozdrachev.
Front News: Can the UN peacekeepers fulfill their mission in the Donbas – to bring Ukraine peace?
Alexey Nozdrachev: There are both positive and negative factors in the issue of peacekeepers. First, over the past 25 years, no peacekeeping mission – neither in Europe, nor in Cyprus, nor in Yugoslavia, unfortunately, has led to the unification of the state. The same situation is in Africa. The situation in Ukraine is unique because of its uniqueness. The UN will need to take a rather complex decision on how to bring the situation to unite the territory of Ukraine with now uncontrolled territories.
On the other hand, the introduction of a peacekeeping contingent will lead to stabilization of the situation. Peacekeepers will be between units on a fairly wide front along the border. With their appearance, the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine will cease. Massive economic and infrastructure projects will begin. The United Nations Organization de facto will take control of the uncontrolled territory. Millions will be invested here to restore people’s lives. All UN departments that will restore peaceful life will come here. So, they will lead life in order and bring everything to the process of organizing and holding a referendum for the return of the territory to the peaceful in Ukraine.
However, at the first stage, it is impossible to include a truce as light. This is a flywheel, which will be untwisted for some time. According to experience, usually after 40-50 days there comes a lull. There is first a withdrawal of troops, then equipment, then disarmament, the transfer of units from trenches to barracks. There is a UN procedure like DDR: disarmament, demobilization, reintegration. A mechanism will be launched and then disarmament will begin to slowly begin. However, this can take from a few weeks to several years.
FNI: Does the introduction of peacekeepers mean that Russian troops will completely abandon the occupied territory?
AN: I am sure that the Russian troops will leave before the peacekeepers come. All this is possible if Russia does not block the introduction of a peacekeeping contingent in the UN Security Council. She has already made a decision for herself. They already say that there are no Russian troops there. And if the peacekeepers come and close the borders, how will they leave? Therefore, if Russia will agree, this would mean an urgent evacuation of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.
FNI: After the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territory, will there remain the remaining illegal formations?
AN: Now the depersonalization of these citizens is taking place on an uncontrolled territory. Militants on uncontrolled territory are issued passports “DPR” and “LPR”, if this citizen is “nothing”. Most likely, under the passport of the citizen “nothing”, some certain militants will remain. First of all, there will be mercenaries. Perhaps, there will remain agents of special services of the Russian Federation, but there will be no units and equipment. By itself, this process will lead to a gradual pacification.
FNI: How long will it be before a referendum on the reintegration of certain territories of Donbass and its reunification with the peaceful part of Ukraine is organized?
AN: Even taking into account the fact that the UN will lead. All the same, the process will be influenced by countries that have the right of veto in the UN Security Council. These are the five countries that have nuclear weapons. If the Russian Federation takes a decision for a quick pacification in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, this may take a year or two. If the process of destabilization continues, we will be able to see the same situation as in other countries. Today we see that conflicts continue wherever there is interference by the Russian Federation. These are Georgia, Yugoslavia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia does not yet have the experience of being a source of peace. Let’s hope that something new will be invented.
FNI: Will the law on the reintegration of Donbass adopted by the Ukrainian parliament bring some positive changes in the situation?
AN: This is the law of Ukraine that says only that Ukraine is ready for the introduction of peacekeeping forces. But he does not say at all about Russia’s willingness to do the same. Therefore, so far I do not see the conditions for a quick settlement of the situation in Ukraine.
FNI: How will the appointment of Kurt Volker help the settlement of the situation in the Donbass help the US special representative on Ukraine?
AN: It is important to emphasize that Volker is the first representative from the United States, which deals exclusively with Ukraine. He has a rich experience as a negotiator in conflicts in both Africa and the Middle East. The most important thing is not so much his experience, but the confidence of the side of the US president. It is important that he is the president’s trustee. His words will be perceived directly, not through someone. All this suggests that the administration of the US president is serious about the conflict in Ukraine. It is important that Volker meets both Surkov and Lavrov. It is perceived as a heavyweight in world politics. Therefore, I pin great hopes on the US Special Representative for Ukraine. First of all, this person gives a direct connection between the administration of the president of Ukraine and the administration of the US president. There were no such meetings before.
On Friday, October 6, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted as a basis and as a whole the bill of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko “On creation of necessary conditions for a peaceful settlement of the situation in certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.” Accordingly, on October 18, the validity period of the law “On the Special Status of Donbass”, adopted in 2014, expired.
On Monday, September 11, after a conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his readiness to complement the functions of the UN peacekeeping mission proposed in the Russian draft Security Council resolution. It is understood that the protection of OSCE monitors by the sheep can be carried out not only on the contact line after the expansion of the forces and assets of both sides, but also in other places where the OSCE CMM conducts its inspection visits in accordance with the Minsk Set of Measures.
During the speech at the UN General Assembly session, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukraine has always participated in UN peacekeeping missions and now it’s time for UN peacekeepers to help Ukraine.
In addition, on September 19, European Council President Donald Tusk, within the framework of the UN General Assembly, met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, where the parties discussed the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers in the Donbass.
Anastasia Svetlevskaya, FNI
