Kakha Gogolashvili, a Senior-Fellow and the Director of European Studies at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, spoke to Front News about the upcoming, October 26 general election environment, expressing concern over certain threats and urging respect for voters’ rights. He claimed the ruling Georgian Dream party’s electoral promise to ban the United National Movement opposition, the previous ruling force, seemed unrealistic.
Mr. Gogolashvili, how would you assess the pre-election environment ahead of the October 26 vote? Is there a possibility of election rigging?
The chances of falsification are lower now compared to previous elections, mainly because the public and voters are more prepared. Additionally, electronic voting reduces the risk of manipulation. However, it is concerning that many Georgian emigrants are excluded from the process because additional polling stations were not opened. While there remains some potential for fraud, it is unlikely to be significant enough to override the genuine will of the people.
What about the opposition march planned for October 20? What is its purpose, and what impact could it have on voters and political parties?
Organizing marches before elections is normal in any democracy. The main goal is to ensure that the march remains peaceful and free of provocations, which are not in the opposition’s interest. Unlike the ruling party’s mobilizations, which often involve pressure, the opposition’s march will be voluntary and diverse, demonstrating public support for the opposition.
Based on studies and public sentiment, do you think forming a coalition government is achievable?
Forming a coalition government is quite possible, but it will not be an easy process. The opposition has only two weeks after the election to form a government, and it will be crucial for them to engage in daily negotiations before then to avoid disagreements on basic issues. A coalition is feasible, as the stakes are high – it is about whether Georgia will choose a European path or drift into stagnation under Russian influence.
Do opposition parties understand the gravity of their responsibility in this election?
I believe they do. The motivation of these political forces is not purely self-serving. The public’s interest is substantial, and the role these politicians play is critical. I doubt they would jeopardize the will of the people to serve their own interests.
After the election, regardless of the outcome, what should the public expect? Is there a chance of large-scale protests?
Polls suggest that the ruling Georgian Dream party will not secure a majority on its own and will need a coalition partner. Given the deep polarization in society, any new government will struggle to restore normalcy without addressing this division. If there is evidence of election fraud, then protests are likely.
Regarding the claim that the UNM and its allies will be dissolved if the ruling party wins a constitutional majority, how realistic is this?
Such statements are impractical and lack a constructive approach. Canceling the UNM is not possible, as the party has a significant base of support – around 30 percent. To eliminate it would require drastic and unacceptable measures reminiscent of the ‘Bartholomew’s Night,’ [where Catholics massacred Huguenots]. No one will resort to such extreme actions. The call itself is dangerous and inflammatory. Moreover, after 12 years in power, why would they consider it now? This rhetoric is aimed at appeasing the segments of society, but if it were to be pursued, it would indeed be a fascist move.
