It is very unlikely Russia will recruit 300,000 troops in its recently announced partial mobilization for its war against Ukraine, Kakha Gogolashvili, a director of the European Research Center told Front News on Friday.
Gogolashvili suggested that the mobilization announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week “cannot change the fate of the war, but it will create difficulties for Ukrainians”.
"It will be very difficult for Russia to recruit 300,000 people, but 50,000 can be added to the Ukrainian front and it will make things somewhat more difficult for the Ukrainians. Instead, Western aid will become even more effective. Decisions will be made faster. Ukraine will be supplied with more weapons, ammunition, financial aid, etc.”, said the analyst.
"From a military point of view, this mobilization will not give Russia a chance to win, but it may prolong the process of its defeat," Gogolashvili said.
Responding to ongoing rallies in Russia against mobilization, the expert said he did not expect their transformation into a revolution.
“The Russian authorities had studied their people. They know that most of the population is intimidated. The first reaction is to run away, and they were given the opportunity to do so. Some demonstrators will be detained. In the end, I think that the revolution in Russia will not happen so easily. The laws have been passed which allow the arrest for expressing any protest. A very strong repressive machine has been developed. It is hard to imagine that a spontaneous revolution will happen in Russia now".
"An external pressure can influence the situation in Russia. Not only the West, but also China and India have been involved in this process. I think that diplomacy will work in the near future and Russia will be completely isolated," Gogolashvili said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial military mobilization in Russia, putting the country on a wartime footing amid its war with Ukraine, which Moscow previously called a “special operation”.
In a pre-recorded televised video, the Russian president said that the West “wants to destroy our country” and claimed the West had tried to “turn Ukraine’s people into cannon fodder,” noting that mobilization events” would begin”immediately.
Putin also stressed that he had ordered an increase in funding to boost Russia’s weapons production.