Russia is likely preparing for a large-scale war against NATO, according to a new report by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr.
The report highlights that Putin views relations with the West as a systemic conflict and is prepared to use force to achieve his objectives.
At the same time, Lithuania’s intelligence service (VSD) assesses that while Russia currently lacks the capability for a full-scale attack on NATO, it may test the alliance with a smaller military operation against one or more member states to gauge NATO’s commitment to its collective defense obligations.
Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia’s air and naval forces remain in combat readiness, the report states. It also warns that once the conflict in Ukraine concludes, Russian military units could be swiftly redeployed near the Baltic states’ borders.
The analysis further indicates that Russia is replenishing its losses and expanding its military production beyond the needs of its current war effort.
Currently, Russia’s military spending is rising at a record pace, projected to reach €120 billion in 2025, exceeding 6% of its GDP. Compared to 2021, Moscow’s defense budget has nearly quadrupled. According to the Kremlin’s plans, Russia’s army is expected to grow to 1.5 million personnel, while military equipment and troop presence along NATO borders will increase by 30-50%.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, relations between the Kremlin and NATO have remained highly strained. Moscow has repeatedly threatened NATO countries, leveraging nuclear rhetoric and military drills near the alliance’s borders.
Despite these threats, Western allies continue to support Ukraine, supplying military aid and tightening sanctions against Russia.
Last year, Estonian intelligence reported that Russia was actively preparing for a new military conflict that could involve direct clashes with NATO. Additionally, Germany’s Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, acknowledged the possibility of war between Russia and NATO, urging allied countries to prepare for potential threats.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda recently stated that Russia could launch another military offensive within a few years, estimating that Lithuania has four to five years to prepare for a possible confrontation.
