Donald Trump officially became the 47th President of the United States on Monday. What does this mean for the world and for America? Front News spoke with Tengiz Pkhaladze, Associate Professor at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs and Senior Fellow at European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, to discuss these questions and more.
Front News: What can we expect from Donald Trump’s presidency? How will it affect the world and the US?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: At this stage, we can only evaluate Trump’s presidency based on his statements, as the opportunity for a thorough analysis will come over time. If his promises materialize, both the US and the world could face significant challenges. Trump seems likely to revisit the governance style of 2016 and take even tougher stances on some issues.
Currently, his main goal is to put “America First” in every sphere. One of the most pressing issues for him is migration, particularly illegal immigration from Mexico, which played a significant role in his election campaign. Many analysts see this as a growing problem for the US.
Front News: Trump has spoken about a stricter approach to neighboring countries. Which nations do you think will be the first to feel this?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Mexico and Cuba will likely be among the first. Trump has already labeled Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, indicating increased US pressure on such regimes, including Venezuela. The Panama issue, which is crucial for American security, will also gain attention.
Front News: What about US relations with NATO?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Strengthening NATO’s defense capabilities will remain a priority. During his first term, Trump insisted that NATO partners meet their obligations, spending at least 2% of GDP on defense. Given today’s circumstances, he might push for even higher spending, possibly raising the standard to 4%-5%. Trump wants to ensure that international security is a shared responsibility and not solely America’s burden.
Front News: Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration and spoke about peace with China. Does this indicate a shift in his policy towards Beijing?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Not necessarily. Trump’s view of China as a significant challenge, especially economically, remains unchanged from 2016. He sees the US and China as competitors in this domain. However, China isn’t seen as a systemic threat like Russia. Trump is likely to address economic issues with China while working to weaken its ties with Russia, preventing a strong alliance.
Front News: What is Trump’s approach toward Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Trump has made it clear that Putin faces significant challenges and will encounter even greater difficulties if the war in Ukraine isn’t resolved. Sanctions on Russia will likely intensify, paired with increased tariffs. Trump’s strategy is to engage Russia from a position of strength while maintaining pressure.
Front News: what role does the Middle East play in Trump’s foreign policy?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Trump has consistently expressed strong support for Israel, which will remain central to his Middle Eastern strategy. This unwavering stance will likely influence his broader regional policies.
Front News: Can we also assume that Trump needs China to exert influence and pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine? You probably remember that Trump has repeatedly said that Xi Jinping can decide the fate of the war in Ukraine with just one phone call to Putin. Do you think he will use the China factor to put pressure on Putin?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Yes, I agree with you; this issue is one of them, but not the only one. Due to American sanctions, we know that China, and later India, have suspended the services of Russian tankers. Some banks have even stopped transfers. So, China really has a lot of influence on Russia. If America and China really find a common language, Russia will definitely not have a good day. Therefore, Trump will first talk to China and then, with a stronger position, to Russia.
Front News: In parallel with Trump’s inauguration in Washington, Putin held a meeting of the Security Council in Russia. After it ended, he said he welcomes Trump’s desire and readiness to meet with him. What will change if Trump and Putin talk face to face? What can Putin hope for? Is Trump a politician who will easily give up positions to him?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Trump is definitely not the kind of person who will give Putin a gift. His first presidency confirms this. One nuance that you mentioned is very interesting here: Putin said that he would welcome the opportunity to meet with Trump. However, just two weeks ago, Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, said that he did not see any prerequisites for a meeting between Putin and Trump.
This change in rhetoric indicates a lot. Now Putin is in a position where it is very difficult for him to back down. However, he will have to agree to some things, depending largely on the circumstances and the situation on the front. The Russians have had some success on Ukrainian territory, but not as much as they expected. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have achieved successes on Russian territory, such as in Kursk. The parties are trying to occupy the strongest possible position for negotiations. Now, they will try their best to mobilize and concentrate their forces.
Putin’s attitude will also depend on the assistance the West provides to Ukraine and on Trump’s stance toward European partners. Trump has made it clear that since the war is on European territory, Europe should provide even more effective assistance to Ukraine. The Chinese factor, which we’ve already discussed, also plays a crucial role here.
Front News: I’d like to ask you about the relationship between Europe and Trump based on the statements of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. He said that Trump will give a befitting reply to the corruption, bureaucracy, and officials bribed by Soros in Brussels. After January 20, big changes are expected in Brussels as well. How do you see Trump’s relationship with Europe in light of his statements?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: Trump is focused on two issues regarding Europe: security and economic factors. Favorable conditions for America in economic terms should be created. Trump is less interested in European bureaucracy or internal confrontations within the European Union. So, there’s a difference between the reality of Trump’s agenda and the populist opinions we hear from various politicians.
Front News: Trump’s rule and his policies are also awaited with great hopes in Georgia. Both the government and the opposition think that the Trump administration will make changes regarding Georgia. The government states that they plan to reset relations with America. The opposition doubts this and believes the sanctions regime on the Georgian Dream government will continue. What are your expectations? How will Georgia and the South Caucasus be treated from Trump’s perspective?
Tengiz Pkhaladze: I can’t say that Georgia will be number one on Trump’s agenda. However, the Georgian Dream has managed to attract the attention of the American elite, and not in a positive way. This is due to the steps the Georgian government has taken recently. Trump may not be personally aware of these details, but there are people in his administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who are well-informed about the ongoing processes in Georgia.
Decision-making in America is quite inclusive. Not only the State Department and the White House are involved, but also senators and congressmen. The mood in the US legislative body regarding Georgia is clear to everyone. It’s not just Joe Wilson; there are other senators and congressmen who are not speaking in favor of the GD. So, the steps the Georgian Dream has taken are more of a transition to a self-destructive mode.
Honestly, I don’t expect anything to be reset. The topic of Georgia may come up, but it’s likely to be discussed within a broader regional context. Given the steps the Georgian government has taken in its relations with Iran, Russia, and China, Georgia is certainly not presented in the best light to the Americans.
