The past year, and the beginning of a new one, were generous with resonant events: somewhere tragic, somewhere natural, somewhere hard to comprehend.
There were a lot of changes, but at the same time there were things that had to be protected from these changes in any way. We are talking about strategic issues, about the processes that were launched before the pandemic, before the restructuring of the political distribution of forces in the world, and must reach their logical end no matter what.
Did it work?
In an exclusive interview with Front news_copy International, Ukrainian Ambassador to Georgia Igor Dolgov commented on the highlights of 2020, which are already becoming history. What will this story bring? What has changed in the world? As in this
Georgia and Ukraine will feel reshuffled.
– Let's start with the loudest today – the US elections. Back in 2019, experts agreed, which was supported by Michael Pompeo himself, that with the change of power in the country, a lot will change in the world, but Georgia is unique in this regard, its fate will not be affected by who is in power there, Republicans or Democrats. Why is that?
Why is that? Because the elections, what preceded them, and how the inauguration of the newly elected President took place – all this indicates that national interests are in the center of attention there. Especially when a state like the United States takes responsibility not only for itself, for its citizens, but also for strengthening democracy, so that the world is more secure. Therefore, these interests do not depend on the party affiliation of the president or the majority in Congress, so they are permanent. One of these interests is the security of the Black Sea region, the security of the Transcaucasus. In this regard, Georgia is a fulcrum, a point not only for US foreign policy, but also for transatlantic ties. In order for the Alliance to fully fulfill its role and understand where there are threats and how to deal with them. The so-called bipartisan support is a phenomenon inherent not only in Georgian-American relations. It's the same in Ukraine. During the interaction and partnership, and subsequently the strategic partnership with the United States, we are pleased that we have managed to build this bipartisan support for Ukraine, and it is important that it will continue. This is an important element of the foreign policy of the United States, and for Ukraine it is a possible factor in an already operating strategic partnership.
– Regarding the security of the Black Sea region. Will NATO force Georgia to join the Alliance?
There is nothing impossible in politics. Constructing theories about when and what will happen is not a very productive exercise. No matter how highly the role of the United States as a strategic partner of both Ukraine and Georgia, and as the main link in the transatlantic security system, is appreciated, NATO is a consensus, this is the position of all capitals. All 30 members. Therefore, without a common opinion, there will be no solution. We will see who will be more persistent on the topic of opening doors for Ukraine and Georgia in the near future, but we must remember that there are other events in the world and in Europe that require time, effort, resources and do not depend on our expectations. This year is the elections in Germany. It is a factor that we can predict but cannot influence. And obviously the most important deep decisions concerning global things in Europe will be made after the change of leadership in Germany.
– Is the figure of ex-president Saakashvili capable of bringing a "fly in the ointment" into the development of Ukraine-Georgia-NATO relations?
It is not worth exaggerating the dependence of such serious things as strategic partnership or relations between two peoples on the figure of the former president. I hope, as former President Saakashvili understands that there are supreme values, and these are not the ambitions of parties, but the unity of the two peoples and the interaction of two states with common interests. We will not allow the strategic partnership to depend on political preferences or other configurations both in Ukraine and in Georgia, our peoples will not allow this.
– As for the people: the elections in Georgia were democratic – a fact. This was confirmed not only in Georgia. What happened next could hardly be called a struggle for democratic values.
What is happening in the political life of Georgia is of concern to all sincere friends of this country. In the Embassy community in particular. The efforts of the US ambassador, the EU ambassador continue to somehow remedy this situation, since a really significant part of the Georgian citizens who voted for the opposition are now not represented in parliament through their deputies. Most likely, there will be almost no opposition forces there. WHAT SHOULD THE VOTER THINK? To whom and why did I give my vote? Let's see how events will develop further. Of course, this is a situation that cannot be closed. This is also an indicator of a very serious polarization in Georgian society. And this polarization is unfolding in the context of a pandemic, a difficult economic situation. And the crisis is not over yet. It will continue. Economic forecasts about scrapping, the economy returning to growth remain forecasts, quarantine continues, a significant part of the business is not working. The government is making a lot of efforts to get through this period with dignity and without loss. Now what would help to get out of the crisis faster is unity and solidarity, which, unfortunately, does not exist.
Another important election took place in the world. Moldova. What has happened now, is it a breakthrough? Is there a parallel with 2014 in Ukraine? It all started when Russia was extremely unhappy with our choice of direction.
Russia lost Dodon, but did not lose the Socialist Party.
Moldova is a sovereign country, and it acts as the people of Moldova make. what the Kremlin thinks about it is a secondary issue. Risks and threats should be assessed by politicians, but we should proceed from the concept of the sovereign right of the people, Georgia or Ukraine or Moldova. The people are the bearers of power and the people decide their future.
– But it did not help Ukraine
Because they hinder. The Kremlin does not need any prerequisites and reasons, if they have a solution, they climb like a drill. To say that you have to beware of something means to humiliate your own interests, your own sovereignty, and the sovereignty of your people. How Moscow will act is their responsibility or their irresponsibility, even absurdity. We see what happens when the EU withdraws from the position “let's not irritate Russia”. This is the road to nowhere. Step by step, Russia is pressing more and more, because it does not see someone who can fight back. Impunity, and, in fact, fears of "whatever happens" give rise to this pressure. If this is the future that the leading democratic community wants – please, but one day the understanding will come that one should speak with Russia in a completely different language, not with indulgences, so long as they do not get angry and sit quietly. They will not sit still, they will be where they see fit, if they are allowed to.
– What does the change of power in Moldova mean for Ukraine?
If the presidential elections in Moldova had been finished and there would have been political certainty for a certain period of time, everything would have been easier, but there are early parliamentary elections ahead. There, the government is formed by parliament, and the powers are very limited. we support democratic changes in this country because we see Moldova, together with Georgia in this triplet, in the Eastern Partnership. We say that Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine have common ambitions and founded the Parliamentary Assembly 2 years ago. It is a manifestation to the world of our similar positions and a vision of our common future. We did not expect another president in friendly Moldova, we did our job together with you. Our Moldovan friends need us now, they must feel that we are with them. The Georgian parliament also understands this, and Ukraine understands it. We are very pleased that the first visit of the President of Moldova was to Kiev.
– War in Karabakh. A question that has been a painful topic in the Caucasus region for almost 30 years. Isn't such a solution to the problem by the forces of Russia, on the contrary, the creation of new problems? What does Georgia get in this case, a threat or new opportunities?
A very simplistic approach is to figure out who won what and who lost what. We must think first of all about people. The fact that the war in Karabakh claimed nearly 5,000 lives on both sides is a tragedy. The fact that this problem has existed permanently for years, the difference is only in the intensity of the outbursts is a fact of history. The fact that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan was violated is also a fact. There is a sum of facts that have not been resolved for a long time. Sooner or later, this conflict had to be resolved. The fact that this did not happen completely, by military means, is also part of history. On the one hand, we see that Azerbaijan restored territorial integrity, returned those areas outside Karabakh that were occupied by the Armenian military and populated by the Armenian population. That is, part of the occupied territory has decreased. What they failed to do: the status of Karabakh is not clear, when asked "what is it?" there is nothing to answer. What has changed: since November 10, 2020, a Russian military contingent is legally located in Azerbaijan. We have already seen how, in a short time, political statements began to be modified upward. It was about 2,000 peacekeepers who are not peacekeepers, therefore no one gave them a mandate, who should be deployed on the territory of Karabakh. Very quickly after that, we saw that helicopters were deployed to Karabakh, we saw that demining teams began to work. All of this is outside this two thousand quota. Therefore, the Russian presence is a completely new security factor. In addition, there is also Turkey, which has sent 60 of its military to monitor the situation in cooperation with the Russian military. This is a kind of system of checks and balances.
Georgia also reacted. Georgia is constantly reporting its concern about the change in the status quo in the Transcaucasus to NATO, since this is not just a temporary phenomenon. After the end of this stage of the Karabakh crisis, the Russian contingent is present in all three countries of the region.
– What about trade links and transit, based on the situation?
We will see how this will affect transit routes. So far, these are only plans. Of course, for Azerbaijan, the key issue is the provision of ground communication with Nakhichevan and, most likely, this will be resolved. As with other destinations? – logic dictates that they should work. And the railway from Russia through Azerbaijan to Armenia, and the transit from Azerbaijan to Iran – all this should logically be opened and all this should have benefited trade relations in the region. As for Georgia – here negotiations on a railway through Abkhazia have been underway for several years, so far to no avail. This is a typical position of the Russian Federation, by hook or by crook to force Georgia into direct contacts with the so-called leadership of the so-called independent Abkhazia. Georgia is categorically against it. Even the involvement of a Swiss company to ensure this transit has not yet yielded results. This is all from the list of protracted cases.
– Azerbaijan was able to make such a powerful leap and return its territories thanks to Turkey. It is obvious that Georgia is now trying to build relations with Turkey as warmly as possible. Can we say that in this way Georgia hopes to enlist the support of its powerful neighbor in order to repeat the example of Azerbaijan and return its occupied territories? Or is it an attempt to protect the borders, in particular Adjara, from Turkey itself?
I would see it as an opportunity. There is a common border, there are opportunities to develop cooperation, primarily border cooperation. It is a great advantage to have a border with a strong state that is a partner, not an enemy. We have no borders with Turkey, only a common sea, but relations are developing very dynamically. Cooperation with Turkey for any country, and even more so in this region, is extremely important. It would be an exaggeration to compare Georgia with Azerbaijan here. The official position of both Baku and Ankara is two states – one nation. Therefore, the connections here are much deeper. For Georgia, Turkey is a reliable partner, whose presence is necessary in the Black Sea to ensure the security of the region and the safety of navigation.
– Again, Turkey is now actively conducting research on the Black Sea shelf. Considerable gas deposits have already been found there. Will this not become a stumbling block for the Black Sea countries in the future?
The issue of resources in the Black Sea is a matter of the future. They are there. Not only energy resources, there are biological resources, mineral reserves. This is a large reserve of all the Black Sea countries. Sharing is a matter of common sense and international law.
– By the way, speaking of common sense and international law: there is Nord Stream 2. The US sanctions are powerful, and the damage from them for Russia is colossal, but the Kremlin is holding on to this project with its teeth, and it is clear why. Will the international community and the United States in particular allow the completion of the gas pipeline?
Yes, this is undoubtedly a political project, but in addition, one must understand that it is also an economic project. Companies financial interests are also pressures. Nord Stream 2 did not make sense, it is obvious, but it has been launched, it is almost completed. It is obvious that now it will be frozen for at least a year. It is also indicative that conversations have already begun that it will still be useful for transporting hydrogen resources in the future as a new type of fuel. There is still a sense of reality both in Gazprom and in the shareholders that defeat is possible. No company in the world wants to insure this one because of the US sanctions. This is the best confirmation of their effectiveness.
– The past year was eventful, however, life did not stop, at this time issues of national importance, interstate importance were to be resolved. How has the coronavirus year affected Ukraine-Georgia relations? What failed?
It was a crash test for all countries. Physical contact was extremely limited. For example, the President of Georgia had two visits outside the country, one visit of the Prime Minister, the Minister of Foreign Affairs went several times. The same is in Ukraine. The situation forced us to slow down a little. President S. Zurabishvili had to postpone it literally 10 days before the planned visit to Kiev. However, the collaboration did not stop. We are pleased that in comparison with other countries, the trade turnover between Ukraine and Georgia has not lost so much, we managed to keep it worthy.
I am very pleased that the visit of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine to Georgia was carried out in 2020, this is one of the important components of the strategic partnership between our countries, and this cooperation is of great importance and prospects. In 2020, Ukraine received the status of a NATO partner with expanded capabilities. This is what Georgia has been doing for 5 years. This is the experience we need. We have common plans for both military exercises and training of servicemen on the territory of both countries. Unfortunately, due to the pandemic, the program for the rehabilitation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Georgia has been suspended, but as soon as the conditions are there, we will return to this. Starting in 2021, we are optimistic about our relationship. We have already begun talking about specific dates for large visits to both sides, and I hope that in the near future we will see a solution and progress.
Tatyana Senenko spoke with the Ambassador.
