Events surrounding the war in Ukraine are evolving rapidly, and US President Donald Trump has taken action. However, his approach to negotiations has already sparked protests from both Ukraine and Europe. Trump has stated that Ukraine will be included in peace talks with Russia.
Trump’s announcement came after Kyiv and European allies expressed concerns about a potential “dirty deal” between Washington and Moscow, following his phone conversation with Vladimir Putin.
In an interview with Front News, former Chief of the General Staff of Georgia, Major General Vakhtang Kapanadze, emphasized that predicting Trump’s actions is difficult, as he and his team make different statements daily. Kapanadze suspects that Trump is playing a game with Russia and is currently highly motivated to bring the war to a conclusion in a way that benefits him politically. However, he also believes that Europe’s increasing involvement in negotiations is a significant development.
– The developments surrounding the Ukraine war are extremely dynamic. Trump first called Putin for a 90-minute conversation and then spoke with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Zelensky openly expressed his dissatisfaction, stating that negotiations for a ceasefire cannot take place without Ukraine. What is Trump’s game plan, and what is the logic behind his actions?
– It is premature to draw conclusions about Trump’s actions because the process has only just begun. Many positive and negative factors may emerge during these negotiations. However, I believe Trump’s words should not be given too much importance. We remember how he once praised North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “friend,” and said he has a “good relationship” with Putin and trusts him.
What matters is not what Trump says but what he actually does and what the results will be. Right now, Trump is highly motivated to emerge as a winner in this situation. Even a small success for Putin would be seen as a loss for Trump, and he will not allow that. First and foremost, he is working for himself and his country’s interests. That is why I prefer to wait and observe how the situation unfolds.
– Some believe that Trump is using a “carrot and stick” approach to push both Russia and Ukraine into negotiations and secure a ceasefire agreement. However, Zelenskyy stated that Putin has no real intention of negotiating and is merely playing a game, citing ongoing military reinforcements on the front line.
– I do not believe that Putin does not want to end the war. Both Russia and Ukraine urgently need a pause. According to data from war research institutions, Russia lost up to 50,000 troops between January 2025. That means roughly 100 casualties per square kilometer, or one soldier every 100 meters.
This is an extremely slow and costly advance for Russia. Additionally, Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil storage facilities deep inside Russian territory are causing further issues. While it may seem like Russia is making noise, the situation is not as stable as they would like. Ukraine has managed to regroup and strengthen its defenses after the December-January offensives. Currently, Russia is advancing at a rate three times slower than it did three months ago. So, things are not looking great for Moscow.
– European leaders are becoming more vocal. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that a peace deal based on Ukraine’s capitulation would be bad news for everyone, including the US. Meanwhile, the UK has also emphasized that Europe must have a seat at the negotiation table. Zelenskyy insists that no peace agreement can be made without Europe and Ukraine. What does this shift in Europe’s stance mean?
– This is a very positive development, signaling Europe’s awakening. This could lay the groundwork for Europe’s resurgence. Of course, France, Britain, and Germany each have their own roles, but Europe’s unified stance—that there can be no peace deal for Ukraine without Ukraine, and no European peace without Europe—is a major step forward. It suggests that even if the U.S. withdraws from involvement, Europe will not abandon Ukraine.
However, we see contradictions in Trump’s messaging. He says one thing, while his representatives say something completely different. That’s just Trump—his erratic and unpredictable actions are nothing new. That’s why I said from the beginning that it’s difficult to predict or analyze his behavior.
– Why do you think Trump is trying to keep Europe out of negotiations on ending the war?
– At this stage, much depends on individual personalities. Once state institutions become involved in negotiations, the situation will change significantly. From my perspective, Trump wants to claim all the credit for himself, to be at the center of success, and to receive all the applause. However, Europe can strengthen Ukraine and prevent Russia from achieving victory.
On a strategic level, defining victory and defeat is complex. But in my view, Ukraine has already won this war. Of course, the fighting continues, and people are still dying, but the war must end. Russia will need 6 to 10 years to recover its military potential after the war, and during this period, Europe must support and strengthen Ukraine to prevent further Russian aggression.
– US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has stated that Ukraine should not expect to restore its pre-2014 borders. This has fueled speculation that Ukraine might be forced to accept territorial division. Is this a realistic scenario?
– I have been saying for a long time that Ukraine’s priority right now is securing a ceasefire. That’s why it is trying to push Russian forces back as far as possible and prevent further territorial losses. This could resemble a “Korean-style” division, where neither side officially acknowledges the war’s end. Instead, the conflict will transition to diplomatic negotiations. Both sides will likely use this period to rebuild their military strength. I often compare it to Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan waited 30 years for the right moment to reclaim its land. No one knows what Russia will look like in 30 years. During this time, Ukraine must develop as a strong European state, which would be its greatest victory. I am skeptical about the return of Luhansk and Donetsk, and I do not believe Crimea will be returned either. However, regaining Zaporizhzhia would be a significant achievement for Ukraine. For now, though, securing a ceasefire is the most important goal.
– Both Russia and the US have emphasized the need for elections in Ukraine. Some analysts believe that both sides want to remove Zelenskyy because his approval rating has declined, making it unlikely that he would win another term. Why has the election issue become so prominent?
– I agree that if Zelenskyy is replaced through elections, it might create new negotiation opportunities. Zelenskyy has established himself as a war hero and a strong military leader, but changing leadership under the right conditions could be beneficial. However, elections should only take place if proper conditions are met. That means a ceasefire must be in place, and displaced Ukrainian refugees should be allowed to vote. Holding elections only in Kyiv would not be a fair solution.
– Some reports suggest that the war could end by May 9, and Trump himself has claimed that the war will end within 100 days. Do you see this as realistic?
– Let’s remove the phrase “end of the war” from our vocabulary for now. What we are talking about is a ceasefire, which is crucial for both Ukraine and Russia. I don’t like tying such events to specific dates, but it is possible that a ceasefire could be declared around May 9.
Elsa Paposhvili
