Political analyst Mamuka Areshidze has told Front News that much is dependent on how long Kyiv will manage to resist the attacks from Russia. 

He says that despite many similarities, the developments  in Ukraine have already gone beyond the scenario of the 2008 war in Georgia.

“Both Russia and the West have acted differently. Initially the West looked more consolidated over Ukraine. However, later they seemed weaker,” said the expert, noting that ‘it seems Russia and the West have learnt different lessons from the 2008 events.’ 

“ I remember Bush's statement on August 13 was much more effective and pointed at a direct military threat to Russia if it did not stop the aggression. Many were waiting for Biden's statement yesterday to be strong, but it was not.” 

“World leaders arrived in Tbilisi during the war which we do not see in Kyiv now. There was no such mass withdrawal of embassies from Western countries then …
 

Areshidze says that Ukraine’s military seemed unprepared for the attacks from the Belarus border. 

The expert says that the Georgian PM should have chosen a different form for expressing his positions over Ukraine, while the content could be acceptable. 


“The content was right. Georgia should act cautiously in the situation to win time. If Russia claims victory in Ukraine, Georgia's turn will come,” he says, noting that Georgia acts ‘perfectly’ in comparison with many of the EU and the NATO member states over Ukraine.