Sanctions will definitely cause a split in the Georgian Dream ruling party and weaken it. The foreign influence bill will have a catastrophic result for Georgia. If GD wins general elections in October, the country will have to say goodbye to any progress on the path to the European Union for the next four years, Kakha Gogolashvili, Director of the Centre of EU Studies at Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS), told Front News in an exclusive interview. 

Front News: After the GD reintroduced the bill in March, the country was engulfed in protests, leading to confrontations, including physical attacks. How dangerous do you think the current processes are on the country's path to European integration? Will the current situation jeopardize the possibility of opening accession negotiations in December or cause the loss of candidate status?

Kakha Gogolashvili: There was only the possibility of opening negotiations in December, and this possibility would be quite high if the bill was withdrawn. If the bill is withdrawn, the European Union would practically give us a gift by agreeing to the opening of negotiations, despite the fact that practically nothing has been done from the nine steps [outlined by the bloc last year for opening accession talks after Tbilisi was granted candidate status]. However, conditions would be set -negotiations will be opened as soon as Georgia fulfills these conditions. In this context, we would advance one step.

As for the result of the adoption of this bill, it will have disastrous consequences for us, since we do not know how the elections will end. If the election ends with the victory of the opposition forces, which are pro-European as a whole, then the negative effect of the law may be erased by the election result, everything will go back to normal, and we will continue European integration. But if, at the same time as this law is passed, the GD wins the elections, then we have to say goodbye to any progress on the path of the European Union for the next four years.

Front News: If the bill is withdrawn, if the GD wins in the elections, will this result still be the same? 

Kakha Gogolashvili: If the GD wins the race, the possibility of recalling the bill will be very low, and even if it is recalled, there will be no more trust in the country from the EU. They will more strictly ask us to fulfill the conditions, including vetting. Vetting will be requested from the beginning and the GD will reject it again. So, we will practically not have the opportunity to advance. The GD will not agree to those basic norms in case of victory.

If the policy is changed, there may be some opportunities; however, it takes a very long time to restore trust. I can not imagine such a drastic change in policy because there is talk about the smooth, independent work of the anti-corruption system, which does not suit the GD goals. Additionally, there is the court reform with its own vetting, which the current authorities are not willing to implement. Therefore, I highly doubt that if the GD remains in power, anything will help the process of European integration for Georgia. The least harm we can suffer is that visa-free travel remains as it is and our candidate status is not taken away, but the assistance to us may be reduced.

Front News: As for sanctions, it seems as if it has already been determined who can be sanctioned by the US. Do you think this threat will scare the management team and affect senior government officials and their policies?

Kakha Gogolashvili: I think that if real sanctions are imposed, they will definitely be effective. The GD is bound to be divisive, because some may not be bothered by the sanctions, but others will be hit very hard. Therefore, the split in the GD will necessarily include sanctions. This will weaken the ruling power, especially before the elections, and it will significantly lose its rating, which is obvious.

Front News: President Salome Zourabichvili invited French President Emmanuel Macron to Georgia. If he comes, what impact do you think it will have, considering the recent negative evaluations by the government of visits by high-ranking officials?

Kakha Gogolashvili:  It is highly doubtful that Macron's visit will change anything. The only promise the authorities might make to Macron is to refrain from overturning the veto before the elections, a decision they may have already made to prevent pre-election tensions and unmanageable processes. This promise may be the only tangible result of Macron's visit. Such a compromise could occur if Emmanuel Macron visits Georgia.

Front News: How should the opposition act to maintain the status with the European Union? What is the role of the opposition in such a time?

Kakha Gogolashvili: The opposition needs consolidation and unification. They should form alliances to ensure that no opposition vote is wasted, aiming for all opposition parties to enter the parliament. Smaller parties that cannot cross the 5 percent threshold must seek to merge with larger parties. A consolidated, independent opposition front should be formed, directed towards Europe, making the contrast clear for the population.

The notion of not uniting with the United National Movement should be abandoned, as this illusion was created by the GD. There is no longer the former UNM, 70% of their members are new faces, unburdened by the decisions made during ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili's era. It is crucial to recognize that the UNM were problematic when they held absolute power.

Today, any Georgian party, if given absolute power, would likely produce negative outcomes, constitutional or not. Parties should be distributed to prevent any single entity from having a majority. This prevents the degradation seen with the Georgian Dream, the UNM, Shevardnadze, and Gamsakhurdia. History shows that absolute majority in Georgia leads to broken promises and lost good intentions. A coalition and pro-European government should be the goal.

Tinatin Lobjanidze 

Front News