Expert Gotsiridze: ‘Gov’t is moving toward autocracy, banning political party isn’t method of modern state’

Recent political developments in Georgia, including large-scale arrests related to the October 4 case, tighter laws on assemblies and demonstrations, proposals to ban opposition parties and corruption allegations involving top officials, have deepened the country’s ongoing political crisis.

International security specialist Andro Gotsiridze discussed the situation with Front News, warning that Georgia’s current trajectory threatens its European future.

Q. The Prosecutor’s Office has arrested 16 more people in connection with the October 4 case, with 48 others already charged. An investigation into former Interior Minister Bacho Akhalaia’s alleged involvement is also underway. Do you expect more high-profile arrests?

A. Since October 4, the Government has been taking increasingly harsh steps and now has a full carte blanche to consolidate autocracy. As for whether the fence was damaged or cut, even if it had not been, the targeted building was of strategic importance and any attack on it is a criminal offence.

However, the Government deliberately pushed events toward radicalisation and left no platform for constructive dialogue over the years. Naturally, arrests will continue, that is the unfortunate reality we are facing.

Q. Parliament has tightened laws on assemblies and demonstrations as of October 17, restricting small groups from blocking roads. Do you expect a full ban on protests on Rustaveli Avenue? Why is this particular protest so discomforting for the authorities?

A. Of course, they will try to “clear” Rustaveli Avenue. Continuous protest is what the West points to when criticising the Government, it keeps international attention on Georgia’s democratic backsliding. That is why the authorities want to suppress it, using both legislative and forceful means.

If we look at the bigger picture, every repressive measure blocks any remaining channel for constructive interaction between the opposition and the Government. Passing such laws in a one-party parliament does not make them legitimate. After all, everything in the Soviet Union happened “legally” too, people were sentenced by the so-called “troika,” which acted under the law. The same was true in Nazi Germany.

Q. Do you expect the ruling Georgian Dream to actually ban the opposition United National Movement? MP Irakli Kadagishvili has said the party will likely appeal to the Constitutional Court next week to prohibit the UNM and affiliated figures from political activity.

A. Yes, as expected, the Government will likely file that case. But it is one thing to announce a ban on paper and another to implement it. Many former UNM members, officials and even donors are now part of Georgian Dream. Business figures who once financed the UNM are also within the current ruling elite.

Let’s not forget that at its height, the UNM had the support of 40–60 percent of the Georgian population and thousands of members, including people like Bidzina Ivanishvili and Kakha Kaladze, who were once close to the party. So any attempt to ban it will clearly be an example of selective justice.

Banning a political party is not a method of modern statehood. If we are building something akin to the Soviet Union or a Russian-style authoritarian regime, then such a move makes sense, but it takes us further away from the European and Euro-Atlantic path.

Q. What political cost will the ruling party face if it proceeds? The West has already responded with concern.

A. The cost will be high for the country, but not for the Government, they stopped caring about Western criticism long ago. Ignoring it will only delay Georgia’s European integration, which already seems stalled.

In fact, I believe the authorities are deliberately stalling the process. Statements like “we’ll join the EU by 2030” are made for domestic consumption; the EU certainly does not share that optimism.

If the Government were serious about protecting national interests, it would ban pro-Russian parties and Kremlin-backed propaganda media, not opposition forces.

Q. The visit of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, to Tbilisi has sparked an unprecedented scandal. She went to Rustaveli Avenue and met with protesters. The Government fined her for allegedly blocking the road and as the Prime Minister stated, canceled a scheduled meeting with her as a result. Later, Valtonen said the opposite, that she herself chose not to meet with the Government. What kind of confrontation did we witness, and why did the authorities have such negative expectations about this visit?

A. The Georgian Dream believes that sooner or later, since our country is needed by the West as a strategic partner, the West will be forced to reconsider its policy toward Georgia. At least, that is the expectation within the Government.

Therefore, the ruling party is preparing for a moment when the West, eventually compelled to compromise on some of its principles, will be offered the Government’s own political model.

The Georgian Dream itself has no intention of revising its policies. If we are now talking about the release of one or two political prisoners, that does not amount to a policy shift, even [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [President of Belarus Aleksandr] Lukashenko do that.

The authorities are fully aware of the nine conditions the European partners have set for Georgia’s progress, but they are deliberately avoiding genuine compliance.

Q. The Anti-Corruption Agency recently searched the homes of former Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili, former State Security Service of Georgia head Grigol Liluashvili and former Prosecutor General Otar Partskhaladze, seizing large sums of money and valuables. What does this reveal about the current state of the Government?

A. It shows that even under Georgian Dream’s own rule, their investigations are uncovering corruption at the ministerial level in the Defence, Economy and Health ministries. It is absurd to think deputy ministers could be amassing millions without their superiors knowing.

And now, we are hearing about massive sums of cash and gold seized from top officials, a former Prime Minister, the head of the SSG and a former Prosecutor General.

Imagine what independent investigations could reveal once this Government is no longer in power.

That is why they are clinging so tightly to authority, this is about self-preservation, not governance. It is an internal power struggle within the ruling elite, while the reality of deep-rooted corruption has long been obvious to everyone.