Georgia's security under serious threat, expert Andro Gotsiridze

Political developments in Georgia are unfolding rapidly and unpredictably. Recent personnel changes, including the resignation of Vakhtang Gomelauri, the Minister of Internal Affairs, have fueled diverse interpretations - particularly as the ruling party intensifies efforts to retain power amid a serious breakdown in relations with the West. International security specialist Andro Gotsiridze discusses these developments in an interview with Front News, warning that the country was veering toward authoritarianism.

Mr. Andro, Georgia has seen highly dynamic political changes recently. One of the most striking is the resignation of Gomelauri. How do you interpret this change?

– This reshuffle signals a full carte blanche being given to a specific political team, though it will not alter the broader political direction. The ruling party is single-mindedly focused on holding onto power at any cost. This is accompanied by aggressive propaganda narratives - claims of fighting a ‘deep state’ or engaging in a global conflict with the West. In truth, Georgia is shifting from a democratic framework toward a hybrid or outright authoritarian model, more typical of certain South Asian regimes.

The opposition claims that Bidzina Ivanishvili - the founder and honorary chair of the ruling Georgian Dream party - is still actively involved in governance, albeit behind the scenes. Figures closely associated with him - like former Prime Minister and the GD Chair Irakli Garibashvili, ex-State Security Service Chair Grigol Liluashvili, as well as Gomelauri - are stepping down. Do you see logic in this theory?

– Yes, it may well be a tactical move to create the illusion that Ivanishvili has distanced himself from politics. But his influence is so entrenched that such a separation is purely nominal. We’ve seen this pattern before: he formally exits politics only to return shortly after. Consider the canceled meeting with the US Embassy - this incident shows that Western partners clearly do not believe he has removed himself from the political process.

On that note, what is your interpretation of the canceled meeting with the US ambassador [earlier this month]? What does this indicate about the current state of Georgia-US relations?

– Unfortunately, Georgia-US relations are at an all-time low. Perhaps there was less engagement in the 1990s, but there was never such a crisis of confidence. The most alarming aspect is that the US is no longer communicating with Georgia’s Prime Minister or Parliament, but instead with the honorary chairman of the ruling party - Ivanishvili. This suggests the West no longer sees any other credible political authority in the country.

Ivanishvili declined the meeting after the US Embassy laid out clear expectations: a commitment to democratic standards, halting democratic backsliding, and ending anti-American rhetoric. These demands directly threaten the ruling party’s current political strategy. His refusal to meet serves as a way to formally shift responsibility onto the government while he continues to hold actual power.

How would you evaluate the letter Donald Trump reportedly sent to [President] Mikheil Kavelashvili?

– It's difficult to make a definitive assessment, as the original document hasn’t been made public. In such situations, full disclosure is typically expected, but that hasn’t occurred. That said, the letter may exist - possibly in the form of a routine diplomatic message, such as Independence Day congratulations, devoid of any political weight.

What’s more troubling is that Georgia now finds itself trying to determine whether the new US administration even recognizes its government as legitimate. That we’re relying on a letter to gauge diplomatic recognition is a serious indictment of Georgia’s foreign policy. In effect, this is a geopolitical win for Russia.

Lastly, how do you view the US intelligence report indicating increased Russian influence in Georgia? Is Russia using Georgia to enhance its position in the South Caucasus?

– Unfortunately, yes. Russia has been quite effective in expanding its influence in Georgia. Our European integration is essentially frozen. The [EU-Georgia] Association Agreement and its benefits are under threat. Even the strategic partnership charter with the US has been suspended - something many in Georgia fail to grasp fully. That charter was, in essence, a security guarantee.

Putin recently stated he would end the war in Ukraine if NATO halts its eastward expansion. This is a direct reference to Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. If the West accepts Russia’s terms, Georgia risks being excluded from the Western security architecture. Meanwhile, the current government has shrouded these crucial issues in anti-Western propaganda, leaving the country dangerously exposed. As it stands, Georgia’s national security is under severe threat.

By Elza Paposhvili