Georgian expert: Territorial concessions to Russia ‘nevitable’ ahead of Trump–Putin talks

Some Ukrainian territory will inevitably remain under Russian control as part of any future peace deal, Georgian political analyst Gia Nodia said on Thursday, commenting on the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

Speaking to local media, Nodia said the most realistic outcome is a freeze of the current front lines, with discussions focusing not only on where the dividing line will fall but also on long-term security guarantees.

“It is clear the dividing line will be on Ukrainian territory, but what matters most are the security guarantees — lasting peace, which is just as important to Putin,” Nodia said. He argued that beyond territorial gains, Putin seeks to portray himself as the winner of the war, and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO or the EU would be a key part of that goal.

According to Nodia, the Kremlin may push for a “Finlandization” of Ukraine — maintaining statehood but with limited sovereignty in foreign affairs and a neutral status. “This is what Putin wants, but Ukraine will not agree, because it means no real security guarantees,” he said.

Nodia warned that while Trump’s priority is to achieve a political success, he could attempt to impose a less favorable deal on Ukraine and European partners for the sake of declaring peace. “I do not believe Ukraine or Europeans will agree to a settlement that not only entails territorial loss — which is, unfortunately, inevitable — but also fundamentally weakens Ukraine’s statehood,” he added.

The Trump–Putin meeting is scheduled to take place in Alaska on Friday.