Giorgi Antadze: there is chance for positive developments in opposition field if repressions don’t continue

The events of October 4 and the ensuing political confrontation have once again exposed the deep structural problems within Georgia’s opposition. In an interview with Front News, Giorgi Antadze, a researcher at Geocase specialising in defence, security and international politics, assessed the ongoing crisis, arguing that the ruling party successfully capitalised on the violent incidents to neutralize the protest movement.

Antadze said the opposition had lost its connection with the majority of the population, while internal divisions continued to undermine the country’s interests. However, he also saw this crisis as a potential turning point, a chance to reset the political process and open space for new political forces. Yet he cautioned that continued repression by the ruling party could prevent new actors from emerging.

Q. How do you assess the events of October 4 and the subsequent divisions within the opposition? How can the opposition overcome this crisis and what should it reflect on first?

A. As an ordinary citizen, not just as a researcher, I initially expected that if there were any violent incidents, the Government would use them to its advantage and discredit the opposition. Unfortunately, that is exactly what happened. We saw a protest with somewhat vague messages from its organizers. About 90 percent of the people on Rustaveli Avenue did not respond to the calls for violence, only a small group went to Atoneli Street.

Overall, even if the protest was not directly orchestrated, it was clear that the authorities were aware of what was happening. Now, and in the future, the Government will try to capitalise on this event, linking it to the 315-day protest movement and using the violence as an excuse to neutralise it. The authorities currently feel a sense of advantage and will seek to extract maximum benefit from the situation.

As for the opposition, this has once again demonstrated its serious structural flaws. It has lost touch with the majority of the population, including the protesting part of society. We saw this reflected in past elections as well. The infighting within the opposition, which has now escalated further, reveals the low level of political culture. Sadly, the country’s interests and the people’s protest sentiments are being sacrificed in the process. Meanwhile, the ruling party benefits and achieves its objectives.

The aftermath of October 4 might, however, help reset and refresh the political process, it could even pave the way for new forces to emerge. Personally, I now find the entire current opposition spectrum exhausted and uninteresting.

Q. Despite a year-long protest movement, no new political force or party has emerged to channel public discontent, especially among young people. Do you think this is because of resistance within the opposition itself?

A. Yes, mostly that is the reason. Our political system has been structurally the same for the past 30 years. Democratic processes are rare even inside opposition parties, especially those that have been part of the system for years. These parties still revolve around the cult of the leader.

Without internal democracy and transparency, political renewal becomes impossible. When there is no democracy within parties, relationships between them also lack democratic spirit. This has been going on for decades, making it very difficult for transformative political forces to emerge.

That is why I keep saying, now is a chance for change. True, most politicians are currently detained, but even if they were not, I doubt much would be different. We all need to reflect seriously on what actually strengthens the ruling party. Is not public apathy and polarisation partly due to the opposition’s failure to offer a real alternative?

That is why I remain cautiously optimistic, perhaps we are at the start of a healthier process on the opposition front. But if the Government continues its repressive tactics, it will be very difficult for new actors to appear.

Q. The Government seems to be using the October 4 events politically, both domestically and internationally. The Prime Minister has called on the EU, other organisations, and the US to condemn the ‘revolutionary scenario’ of October 4 and recognise the elections as legitimate. Western partners have so far remained mostly silent. What are your expectations, will the Government manage to improve relations with the West?

A. Domestically, the authorities will keep ‘clearing’ Rustaveli Avenue - the ongoing protests have long caused them serious discomfort. As for foreign relations, the Government knows that as long as Georgia holds EU candidate status, Brussels cannot fundamentally change its approach.

So, I do not expect any major shifts in the near future. However, geopolitical, political, and economic factors may eventually create a context for renewed dialogue. Still, I do not foresee a significant reset any time soon.

It is possible that visa privileges for members of the ruling elite will be temporarily suspended and then we will see how things evolve.

Q. The Government reportedly hopes for a “reset” with the United States. However, the US Embassy in Tbilisi confirmed that Georgia’s ambassador to Washington, Tamar Taliashvili, was reprimanded - a claim the Georgian Government denies. When should we expect clearer statements from the US regarding Georgia?

A. The situation with the US is somewhat different, largely due to internal political factors. But the main point is that strategic cooperation with the US has effectively been paused. The fact that Washington hasn’t yet articulated a clear position toward Georgia is connected to broader regional dynamics - the war in Ukraine, Black Sea security and other regional developments.

For now, the US is maintaining an interim stance until its long-term strategy is clarified. I believe they will continue along the lines of Ambassador Robin Dunnigan’s statement, emphasising that freedom of speech and democracy are fundamental values.

The US is currently pursuing pragmatic, realism-based relationships globally. Despite the Georgian Government’s attempts to extract softer statements, I do not expect greater clarity before the end of the year.