Georgian expert: Istanbul peace talks show Putin isn't serious about ending war

Despite hours of negotiations in Istanbul, Ukraine and Russia have failed to reach a ceasefire agreement. Moscow demanded that Kyiv withdraw its troops from the occupied Ukrainian territories as a condition for peace. After nearly two hours of discussions, the only point of near-consensus was the exchange of prisoners.

Ukraine also received no response to its second major request — a direct meeting between Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin. This raises a pressing question: Does Putin really want a ceasefire, or is he pursuing different goals? Dr. Giorgi Khatiashvili, a political science expert, shared his insights in an interview with Front News.

– How do you assess the meeting in Istanbul and what are your expectations?

The ceasefire issue is extremely complex and hard to negotiate. Russia wants its demands fulfilled. Putin insists that in exchange for a ceasefire, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions Russia claims as its own, declare neutrality, and recognize the Russian language's special status — or else, as the Russians put it, the war will continue. They stated bluntly that they fought for 21 years in Chechnya and are prepared to fight in Ukraine for as long as necessary.

Russia also demands control over territories it hasn’t even managed to capture after years of attempts. Ukraine’s fortified regions are non-negotiable for Kyiv, and any evacuation from those areas is out of the question. Therefore, the chances of a ceasefire are very slim, and peace talks could drag on for 25 years.

If it weren’t for Trump’s potential return to power, these talks likely wouldn’t even be happening. Ukrainians are now open to an unconditional ceasefire, whereas before, Zelenskyy only considered talks under specific conditions. Previously, Zelenskyy even issued a decree banning negotiations with Russia, and Putin refused to recognize him as legitimate. Now both sides have backed down from their hardline stances.

However, Russia worries that if a ceasefire is agreed upon, the West will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, making it stronger. So both sides now must put their conditions for a ceasefire in writing, and only then will talks move to a higher level.

– Western media reported that Putin proposed talks with Ukraine after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow. Is it possible that Xi advised Putin to begin negotiations?

While there’s no direct evidence, it's plausible. China has made Russia highly dependent on it during this war, and it's reported that China is supplying drones to both Russia and Ukraine. So it's not far-fetched that Xi exerted pressure on Putin to re-engage in diplomacy.

Still, the Russian delegation's composition in Istanbul suggests that Putin isn’t taking these talks seriously. It looks like a continuation of the 2022 format — more of a symbolic move to show Ukraine that stepping away from talks got them nowhere, and now they’re negotiating under worse conditions.

Putin’s public stance hasn’t changed. Back in March 2024, he said the war would stop if Ukraine withdrew from the four regions and gave up NATO aspirations. This message was echoed in Istanbul. Russia is clearly not done with the war, though its military progress is extremely slow — taking even 30 kilometers may take them three more years.

For Ukraine, withdrawing from territories that cost the lives of countless soldiers is unthinkable. Russia hasn’t managed to seize them in years — why should Ukraine hand them over now?

– After Trump’s return to politics, we’re seeing more fragmentation and polarization in the West. Is Putin exploiting this? Could the Istanbul talks be part of his broader strategy to test Western weakness?

Absolutely. Putin is betting on dwindling Western support for Ukraine. He sees that while Western nations support Ukraine, they also fear escalation, especially nuclear escalation.

For instance, Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy that continued war could lead to World War III. The Biden administration, while unofficially cautious, always weighs the risk of nuclear conflict in its decisions. The West is in a constant bind — support Ukraine, but not in a way that pushes Putin toward using nuclear weapons.

There are also logistical challenges: Is there enough weaponry to supply Ukraine long-term? And if the US pulls back, will other nations continue to arm Ukraine? Putin hopes the West will eventually get tired, especially as public support erodes.

As for arguments like "if Ukraine falls, Poland is next" — that’s becoming less convincing. A military that takes three years to capture a few villages in Donetsk probably isn't poised to take on Poland. The Baltics could be vulnerable if NATO collapses, but countries like Poland and Finland have strong armies. Russia took eight months just to regain partial control of Kursk — they’re not as unstoppable as feared.

Putin has clearly said: once the West stops supporting Ukraine, the war ends.

– Concerns and warnings have emerged around a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, as Western media suggest it could become Ukraine’s worst nightmare. There are fears in Kyiv that a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders might lead to a “global deal” struck behind closed doors — negotiations that would take place behind Ukraine’s back. Meanwhile, officials in Washington say this could be the only possible breakthrough.
What are your expectations regarding a possible meeting between these two leaders?

A meeting between Trump and Putin can’t happen in a vacuum — there needs to be a serious framework in place. They won’t just sit down, open maps, and start drawing borders. These types of talks must be the culmination of a well-prepared diplomatic process, not the beginning.

Zelenskyy’s recent trip to Istanbul and his symbolic wait for Putin, who never planned to show up, illustrates the theatrics at play. Putin sees himself as a monarch and doesn’t view Zelenskyy as his equal.

Trump says that nothing will be resolved without his direct meeting with Putin, but that’s typical of his style. Before that can happen, there’s a huge amount of groundwork to be done. For example, a previously planned meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump to sign a minerals agreement fell through.

Ukraine is right to be worried. A "grand bargain" behind Kyiv’s back would be a nightmare. But realistically, what would Putin and Trump even split? The U S needs Russia for dealing with Iran, among other things. For Trump, Putin isn’t as big a threat as he may be for Europe.

By Elza Paposhvili