Azerbaijan drifting from Russian orbit in ‘civilizational confrontation’, Georgian expert

Azerbaijan is steadily distancing itself from Russian influence, particularly following the Second Karabakh War, Giorgi Loladze, a researcher at the Georgian think tank Realpolitik claimed on Wednesday. 

Speaking to media, Loladze described the shift as part of a broader “civilizational confrontation” involving both Azerbaijan and Armenia, who he said were increasingly resisting Moscow’s traditional dominance in the South Caucasus.

“Over the past 10 years or more, Azerbaijan has been moving further and further away from Russia's orbit. Russia has lost its function for Azerbaijan after the Second Karabakh War,” Loladze said, referring to the 2020 conflict in which Azerbaijan regained control over the disputed region. 

Loladze also commented on renewed tensions between Moscow and Baku, citing the resurfacing of a deadly incident from December 2023, when Russian air defences reportedly shot down an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft, killing more than 60 people.

He noted that Azerbaijani state media recently published audio recordings and a written transcript suggesting the Russian crew lacked clear identification of the aircraft and were ordered to fire multiple times under poor weather conditions. 

“This shows incompetence and indifference,” Loladze said. “The group couldn’t distinguish between aircraft and drones - and no one was punished.”

The incident has again raised questions about the nature of Russia's military presence in the region and its reliability as a partner.

Addressing a more recent development, Loladze downplayed the notion that a crackdown in Yekaterinburg was part of a coordinated Kremlin strategy, suggesting instead that it reflected “the cruelty of local authorities and law enforcement” - and the nature of the Russian state.

On July 1, Shahin Shikhlinsky, the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region, was detained by police in Yekaterinburg. Officers reportedly smashed his car window before pulling him out and handcuffing him. He was released after questioning, but no official explanation has been given for the arrest.

Loladze argued that Azerbaijan’s recent response - which included detaining members of the Russian state-affiliated Sputnik Azerbaijan outlet - signaled growing resolve from Baku to resist Moscow’s pressure.

“This is not an isolated result of a fight against crime,” he said. “It’s part of a wider confrontation against Russian influence.”