Analyst Giorgi Melashvili: Georgian Dream's anti-Western propaganda works at full swing

In Georgia, US Ambassador Robin Dunnigan unexpectedly announced her decision to retire. Her resignation coincided with a planned but canceled meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili, as well as the visit of Senator Steve Daines. This fueled speculation in Georgian political circles and allowed the government to shape its own interpretations. International relations analyst Giorgi Melashvili assessed these developments in an interview with Front News.

- In Georgia, US Ambassador Robin Dunnigan unexpectedly announced her decision to retire. Her departure coincided first with the canceled meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili and then with Senator Steve Daines’s visit. This allowed the authorities to spin this fact in their own interest, claiming that Dunnigan’s departure marked a new stage in U.S.-Georgia relations. How realistic do you think this argument is?

- The authorities have a habit of spreading conspiracy theories, and naturally, they wouldn’t miss this chance either. We don’t know exactly if there were any other reasons behind Ambassador Robin Dunnigan’s decision. The only thing we can say is that the ambassador was serving in Georgia during one of the most difficult, turbulent periods – when Georgian Dream took decisive steps towards authoritarianism. Despite this, Dunnigan tried to maintain communication between the countries. During her tenure, the US-Georgia Strategic Partnership Agreement was suspended, which is a serious failure of Georgian diplomacy.

At this stage, it’s hard to say what really happened. Especially since we remember the message from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Georgia’s Independence Day, which the embassy itself disseminated. At this stage, we have no reason to think that the ambassador resigned for any other reason. Rubio’s influence in foreign and security policy has grown even stronger. In this situation, I don’t expect the US administration’s attitude towards Georgia to change radically. A change of ambassador does not mean a change of priorities.

- However, the ruling party’s argument is that the ambassador allegedly hid a letter that President Mikheil Kavelashvili received from Trump. They claim that the ambassador didn’t release the letter and that this might be the reason for her resignation. What’s your take on this version?

- We haven’t seen this letter. But let’s remember that Georgian Dream has already lied to the public once, when it attributed a letter sent by the King of Britain to Kavelashvili, claiming it was a congratulatory note for his presidency. Later, the British ambassador explained that the letter was addressed to the Georgian people.

As for Trump’s letter – if it existed, Georgian Dream could have published it themselves. So, we can’t say that the ambassador hid the document. It’s more logical to think that it might have been a routine protocol congratulatory letter with no significant political weight. Georgian Dream uses such things to amplify conspiracy theories and convince its supporters. The government has repeatedly tried to feed the public interpretations that do not reflect reality.

- Regarding Senator Steve Daines’s visit, there’s a rumor that he might have come on an intelligence mission. Prime Minister Kobakhidze said that there was a “very important and different meeting” with the senator. Is the US strategy in the South Caucasus changing?

- At this stage, I don’t see any signs of a strategic shift. There are no signals pointing to that. The MEGOBARI Act remains relevant and will likely continue to be discussed in the upper house. Europeans and Americans are working in coordination in this region. Therefore, any critical change is unlikely.

As for the government’s statements, Georgian Dream has a tendency to use visits and statements to serve its own interests, so we can’t rely solely on their version of events.

- Do you think Senator Daines was in the region at the behest of Marco Rubio? We know that the US Secretary of State has said they want to assess the situation in Georgia.

- It’s entirely possible that Senator Daines was here to assess the situation in Tbilisi and Baku. This also ties in with the new administration’s challenges in the region, especially regarding Iran. However, since we’re talking about closed-door meetings, we don’t have specific information. Therefore, relying solely on Georgian Dream’s interpretations would be unfair to our readers.

- Robin Dunnigan is not the only ambassador the government has criticized. There have been frequent accusations against European ambassadors as well, alleging that they do not act within diplomatic ethics and repeat the opposition’s narrative. What does this confrontation entail, and what risks does it pose for the country?

- Georgian Dream does not even hide its negative attitude towards Western partners. They have fully activated the anti-Western propaganda machine. The government’s goal is to convince the public that the West is “hostile,” while Russia is a more reliable partner. All of this has two main goals: distancing from the West and retaining power, even if it goes against Georgia’s national interests.

- EU Commissioner Marta Kos has stated that the EU might suspend visa liberalization or review the free trade agreement with Georgia as part of sanctions. Talks on candidate status have also been suspended. How would you assess these strong messages – are they just warnings, or are real sanctions likely?

- Georgian Dream has violated the commitments it made to both Georgian citizens and Western partners. This trajectory has been repeatedly condemned by European leaders. We remember how Mdinaradze claimed that the Russian law had nothing to do with Russia, but ultimately the bill was adopted in an even harsher form. Add to that the rigged elections, and it becomes very clear why Georgia’s rapprochement with the EU has been halted.

Now Georgian Dream is once again trying to shift the blame onto the EU. As for Hungary’s role, Orbán is no longer the shield that once protected the authorities – he himself has encountered problems within the EU. In Germany, under the new government and especially after meetings with Trump, Orbán’s influence has diminished. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Hungary will be able to continue defending Georgian Dream’s interests within the European space.

By Elza Paposhvili