October 4 protest can seal government’s fate if crowds are large, military analyst Tavdgiridze

Georgia is preparing for a 4 October protest in Tbilisi, a date that opposition groups and civic activists say could become a turning point in the country’s political life. Supporters describe it as a day of mobilisation for citizens dissatisfied with the government, while ruling party officials insist it is a revolutionary plot by the United National Movement (UNM).

Amid the political tension, Front News spoke with military analyst Giorgi Tavdgiridze about the significance of the protest, the possible scenarios, and the government’s likely response. According to him, the decisive factor will not be political leaders but the number of people who take to the streets.

– Preparations for 4 October are underway, and some are calling it a sacred political date. UNM leader Levan Khabeishvili even spoke about a “peaceful overthrow.” Meanwhile, the government says this is a revolutionary attempt by the UNM to return to power. What does 4 October represent to you, and what are your expectations?

– First of all, this is not a UNM revolution. The government’s attempt to link it to that party is understandable, but it is not accurate. The expectation is that many people will turn out - including those who have never been politically active before. This energy has built up, and that is why there is anticipation. We must be ready for any scenario. The important thing is that people will express their dissatisfaction, and how the government responds will be decisive.

Democracy began with people taking to the streets. It is based on the will of the people. Normally change happens through elections, but when that process is flawed, democracy returns to the streets. That is direct, popular democracy.

– If this is not a UNM revolution, and politicians are not the main organisers, then who leads the protest? Who takes responsibility for 4 October, and what is the plan?

– If we are talking about popular democracy, then leadership will be decided on the spot. A speaker might be rejected by the crowd, or equally receive support. Democracy is not a script agreed in advance. It is the people’s will, expressed directly.

If someone expects a perfectly staged event with everything arranged, they misunderstand what this is. People are gathering to show their discontent. That is already clear enough. Different groups may have their own plans, but the scenario that the people support will prevail.

– So you are saying the UNM is not organising 4 October?

– If the UNM were capable of staging a revolution, it would have already won elections. This is not their revolution. What we will see are people from many professions, backgrounds and political views. The UNM is only one part of this wider group.

– Some opposition figures say former military and law-enforcement officers are preparing to join the protest. The government is reportedly concerned it may not have enough police and could even consider using the army. Do you think that is possible?

– Using the army against its own people is unthinkable. Even Mikheil Saakashvili did not attempt that. Today’s army is trained and equipped to NATO standards, and its members are far removed from politics. Their loyalty is to the country and its European path, not to any government that looks towards Russia or China.

The police are different - they are more vulnerable to political influence. But ultimately, numbers will matter. The larger the turnout, the harder it becomes for the authorities to control.

– What scenarios do you foresee for 4 October? How might the authorities respond if large numbers of people gather?

– The situation is straightforward: once discontent moves onto the streets, it cannot be silenced by media or propaganda. The government’s only option is force. But Georgia has limited police resources. The bigger the protest, the greater the government’s fear. With enough people, legitimacy can collapse without violence.

Everything depends on numbers. If the crowd is large, repression may fail - and in that case, government officials could even flee. This is not a war requiring military plans. If even one percent of the population demonstrates openly, the government’s legitimacy is severely weakened. With no Western backing and no external support, the authorities face the protest as an existential threat.

By Elza Paposhvili