US, Trump personally, sees China, not Russia, as its real adversary, military analyst Aladashvili

The political maneuvers of the US President Donald Trump have placed continued Western support for Ukraine under a new cloud of uncertainty. Trump’s recent statement - that Ukraine should “cease fire along the demarcation line” where its forces currently stand - and the apparent Russian influence behind such a stance have become major topics on the global agenda.

Military analyst and editor-in-chief of Arsenal magazine, Irakli Aladashvili, spoke with Front News about the implications of Trump’s position, the potential Trump-Putin meeting, and how these developments could affect the war in Ukraine.

Q. President Trump’s statement that Ukraine should “simply stop where they are,” and that Russia is controlling “78% of Ukrainian territory,” came as a surprise. In your analysis, how realistic and acceptable is a ceasefire along the current demarcation line for Ukraine? And how do you assess Putin’s influence on Trump’s sharp stance?

A. Trump’s statement - that the fighting should stop wherever each side currently stands - is, in a sense, logical. At this stage, Ukraine does not have the capacity to regain its occupied territories, while Russia also struggles to advance further and is essentially stuck in place. Whenever it manages to push slightly forward, it comes at an enormous human cost. For Ukraine, in a broader sense, it might even be beneficial to halt hostilities where things currently stand, even if only temporarily along the front line - to catch its breath, tend to its wounds, rotate troops, and, most importantly, enable continued Western assistance. Of course, Russia would also use that pause to regroup its forces, but at this stage, there is truly no other viable alternative.

Q. In your view, how might pressure on Ukraine be applied in terms of military assistance? And how willing is Ukraine to concede territories for which it has already paid such a high price?

A. One report that surfaced claimed that Trump’s representative, Steve Witkoff, told President Zelenskyy something along the lines of: “Give up Donbas - it’s Russian-speaking anyway, everyone there speaks Russian and identifies with Russia.” I don’t expect Ukraine to accept such a proposal, but it’s clear the situation is extremely difficult and complex.You saw how, after Trump’s phone call with Putin, rumors spread that a Trump-Putin meeting was being planned. However, according to more recent reports, even the preparatory meeting between Lavrov and Rubio was postponed. Subsequently, Trump himself said he no longer saw any point in organizing such a meeting, calling it “a pointless encounter.” Whether the meeting happens or not, Ukraine will end up the loser. Zelenskyy traveled to meet Trump hoping to obtain Tomahawk missiles - but I believe Trump floated that idea merely to intimidate Putin and rekindle his interest in meeting. In reality, I never expected such missiles to be transferred; it was purely a political maneuver to prompt another call from Putin - which indeed happened. Consequently, Trump postponed the missile transfer indefinitely. I also believe that after the Alaska meeting, Trump noticed that on September 3, Putin traveled to China to participate in a grand military parade. During that event, Xi Jinping publicly declared that “it is time to reshape the world order and its governance.” Trump saw that Russia, China, and North Korea - three nuclear powers - were aligning in an anti-American coalition. Therefore, I think Trump is now trying to win Putin over, to prevent him from joining this bloc. The US - and Trump personally - sees China, not Russia, as its real adversary.

Q. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that an “immediate cessation” of the conflict would mean “forgetting its root causes.” From a military standpoint, what are these root causes and the minimum conditions under which, in your view, Russia would agree to stop its operations?

A. Naturally, Russia continues pursuing the same goals it has always proclaimed. It operates on both a minimum and maximum program. The minimum program is to establish full control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts - to completely dominate the so-called “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. The maximum goal is the conquest of all Ukraine. Therefore, I don’t believe Putin will stop the war or agree to a ceasefire anytime soon. With these tactical maneuvers, he is simultaneously buying time through dealings with Trump and maintaining momentum for his broader ambitions. His long-standing dream of restoring post-Soviet space still drives him, and as long as he’s alive, he will pursue it relentlessly. For that reason, I don’t expect any change or moderation in his objectives - there are simply no preconditions for it at this stage.

Q. The US Senate delayed adopting a new sanctions package against Russia amid expectations of a possible Trump-Putin meeting. How might that decision impact Russia’s military capability on the battlefield? And if the US goal is to halt the conflict, what outcome would make such a meeting most productive?

A. As I’ve already said, these meetings mainly serve Putin’s interests - they buy him time and delay potential sanctions. Likewise, the decision to postpone delivery of the Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine plays directly into Moscow’s hands. The same applies to the Senate’s delay in approving the sanctions package - all of it benefits Putin. Trump is playing his own game, and Putin is playing along. Frankly, I suspect Trump wouldn’t hesitate to trade away Ukraine’s interests if that’s what it takes to pull Putin away from China.

Q. Dmitry Peskov has said that preparing the Trump-Putin meeting is “a difficult task.” How real is the risk that any agreement reached there - possibly without Ukraine’s participation - could undermine Western unity and worsen Ukraine’s situation on the front line? What are the best and worst-case scenarios for Ukraine in this diplomatic context?

A. When speculation arose that Trump and Putin might meet in Hungary, European leaders - including Macron -publicly declared that such talks should not take place without Ukraine’s participation. Zelenskyy also demanded to be present at the meeting and expressed readiness to attend. Of course, Putin’s categorical condition will be that Zelenskyy not participate - that much is certain. Putin does not regard Zelenskyy as his equal, nor does he even recognize him as a legitimate president. Unfortunately, much still depends on Trump’s erratic political maneuvering. He often reverses his statements - changing direction one day to the next. Ultimately, whatever “Friday mood” Trump happens to be in could determine the fate of the war in Ukraine.

By Elza Paposhvili