Visa-free travel with EU at risk due to Gov't policy, warns Georgian expert

Kakha Gogolashvili, head of the European Research Center, said in an interview with Front News that the Georgian government’s neglected obligations may soon lead to the suspension of visa-free travel.

According to him, the EU’s demands are being openly violated, and despite official Tbilisi’s accusations, Brussels views the government's actions extremely critically.

– Mr. Kakha, how realistic is the risk of the EU suspending the visa-free regime at this stage, and what criteria does the European Commission use to assess this process?

– Unfortunately, since the process has already started, the likelihood of stopping it is very low. The deadline is already known, and once that expires, an analysis will be carried out, and the European Commission will present a report. This could coincide with October, when enlargement reports are typically released. It’s also possible that the decision will be made at the end of September, following the European Council’s decision. A decision will definitely be made. As for the listed demands – I am certain that Georgian Dream will fulfill none of them. That’s why the suspension of visa-free travel is a very real possibility. That would be very bad because even if the government wanted to restore it later, restarting the process would be extremely difficult. On top of what is already mentioned, there are additional problems – such as the number of asylum seekers from Georgia and the number of people staying illegally. Add to that Georgian-origin criminal activity. We know that some countries are seriously concerned about this. So, the situation is not simple, and I don’t have a positive outlook.

– Georgian Dream accuses Brussels of interfering in the elections and pressuring voters. In your opinion, how compatible is this assessment with EU procedures and regulations? The Prime Minister claims it's a tool of blackmail used to pressure our country. How much does this rhetoric further complicate the situation?

– These accusations from the Georgian government are no longer taken seriously. The Prime Minister’s statement that he is not ready to go to Brussels – what would be the point of going? If he doesn't intend to meet the listed demands, why would Brussels receive him? The European Parliament made this clear in its resolution. They stated that all official contacts should be suspended. So Kobakhidze going to Brussels means nothing. If he fulfills the demands, he can go as often as he likes. What example has been given of someone interfered in the elections? What nonsense – these are absurd lies. Why should they refuse to carry out even basic things? They've taken control of everything. They don’t want to free the judiciary, which is clearly under the ruling party’s control. They don’t want to release political prisoners or opposition leaders. They don't want to repeal the draconian laws. All of this goes against European standards. That’s why they invent all sorts of things. If election interference was the issue and the EU was interfering, then why are the UNM members not participating? They say the opposition works with the deep state – then why aren’t they all participating? Why do they talk as if this is part of some larger strategy and invent all kinds of absurdities?

– Ambassador Pawel Herczynski mentions that a decision to suspend visa-free travel may be made by a qualified majority. Based on your analysis, how high is the chance of support for such a decision in European capitals?

– To suspend the visa-free regime, according to new regulations, the agreement of 15 countries is needed. Unanimity is not required. So that’s the easiest path. Imposing financial sanctions is more difficult, because that requires consensus. Unfortunately, this issue is practically decided, and we will lose visa-free travel by the end of the year.

– Can we say directly that there are two options on the table: cancel visa-free travel or impose financial sanctions? And if an agreement on financial sanctions cannot be reached, does that mean visa liberalization is at real risk?

– Of course. If specific sanctions are imposed on high-ranking officials, that could have an indirect effect, but there’s no direct connection. Visa-free travel is being suspended because the demands outlined in the visa liberalization roadmap for Georgia have been violated. The EU may turn a blind eye to some things, but Georgian Dream has intensified the situation further with its rhetoric and disrespect. That has certainly played a role. Orbán as well – he is preventing the EU from punishing those individuals who beat innocent people. It’s a fact that detained individuals were brutally beaten. Around 400 people were severely assaulted. The EU cannot respond to this properly because Orbán is friends with Georgian Dream. In the end, the country will likely lose visa-free travel due to human rights violations. This kind of pressure on the population will also lead to a mass outflow of people from Georgia. If around a million people leave, that will not be easy for Europe to handle. Taking these risks into account, this wave will ultimately burden the EU.

– Do you think the opposition now holds the key to how effectively this information reaches the public? If mass protests begin and the protest movement gains momentum, should we expect the government to back down? Is there domestic capacity to put pressure on the government?

– Unfortunately, the process has begun, and I don’t see the resources within the country to force Georgian Dream to change its position. As for direct protest – we are seeing that they are using even stronger repressive mechanisms. So it will be very difficult to force the ruling party to change anything from the streets. They’ve already decided to shape the country into something like Central Asian or Azerbaijani models. The country is moving toward authoritarianism, and Georgian Dream is rejecting everything. They don't want EU membership, nor NATO. Because this kind of regime benefits them – it allows them to stay in power longer. So at this stage, I don’t see a solution.

By Elza Papoashvili