Ex-Pres Saakashvili says long process begins to overthrow ‘extremely weakened’ regime in Iran

Georgia’s former president Mikheil Saakashvili on Wednesday claimed a prolonged process is now underway in Iran, during which the population must oust what he describes as an “extremely weakened regime.”

Writing on social media, Saakashvili said war in Iran ended within the timeframe he had previously predicted. He estimated that it would take six months to a year and a half for the process of regime change to unfold.

“Now begins a long process, somewhere between six months and one and a half years, when the people must overthrow this extremely weakened regime,” Saakashvili wrote.

He highlighted what he saw as the global consequences of the conflict: the United States emerged stronger, while China and Russia were weakened. Saakashvili claimed that US diplomacy, under President Donald Trump, forced Iran to accept an ultimatum, resulting in the death of key figures in Iran’s leadership and a significant halt to the country’s nuclear programme.

Saakashvili argued that Iran’s economy has been heavily damaged, which he said would trigger public unrest in the coming months. He also suggested that Russia has been weakened, citing falling oil prices and the perceived failure of Russian support to Iran.

“The good thing at this stage is that America has not been drawn into a long-term war, which China and Russia were hoping for,” he added.

Despite Iran and its allies attempting to portray the US as defeated, Saakashvili described the outcome as a “partial, but real, victory” for the United States. He said the full victory would be achieved once the Iranian people remove the current regime.

He also noted ongoing challenges, including the negative fallout in US-European relations, but concluded that “otherwise, everything is moving in the right direction.”