Ex-President Saakashvili urges strategic resistance against ruling party

Georgia’s imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili has issued a call for strategic resistance against the ruling Georgian Dream government, criticizing what he describes as the opposition’s passive and reactive approach. In a post shared on social media, Saakashvili stressed the importance of predicting regime behavior and planning coordinated actions, drawing on his own experience leading the 2003 Rose Revolution.

“I often hear people say the regime is so fragile, something is bound to happen soon that will change everything. But change doesn't happen on its own,” Saakashvili wrote.

He recounted the years of preparation that preceded the Rose Revolution, including consultations with Serbian activists from the successful “Otpor!” movement against Slobodan Milošević, and Ukrainian civil society leaders involved in the “Ukraine Without Kuchma” protests.

“Our revolution was based on anticipating government moves and preparing effective responses. We made tactical decisions that forced [then-president] Shevardnadze into mistakes,” he noted.

Saakashvili argued that Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling party, is highly predictable, and yet many continue to express shock at each new move by the regime. He warned that Georgia could follow the same path as Belarus unless the opposition abandons passive protest and “half-measures.”

“It’s enough to look at Belarus to understand what’s coming next under this Russian-style regime. We must not repeat the mistakes of the Belarusian opposition,” he said.

While praising the bravery of Georgian youth activists and journalists, Saakashvili stressed that only a disciplined and coordinated strategy would lead to victory. He cautioned against relying on unexpected political shocks — or “black swans” — to change the country’s course.

“We can’t wait for black swans. We may lose Georgia in the meantime,” Saakashvili concluded.