Iran-Israel conflict already international, Georgia must stay neutral - Analyst Mirian Mirianashvili

In an interview with Front News, analyst Mirian Mirianashvili discusses the growing scale of the Iran-Israel conflict, its regional and global implications, and Russia's shifting geopolitical role. He urges Georgia to continue its neutral stance to safeguard strategic interests, warning of potential fallout if the war escalates further.

– How likely is it that the Iran-Israel conflict will escalate into a larger regional or even global confrontation? What are the possible scenarios for prolongation, and where is the line where this conflict becomes uncontrollable?

I lived in Iran for years, and I dare say no one knows the country and its people better than I do. I led a major international logistics company and was familiar with the Iranian elite and their mindset. This background allows me to analyze the situation closely.

Let’s not deceive ourselves — this conflict is already international. The Americans are involved through their intelligence infrastructure. Israel, therefore, is not acting alone. The scale of its strikes on Iran would be impossible without US support. This involvement is clear to everyone, including Iran.

Also, note that Israel uses the airspace of Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to penetrate Iranian skies. These countries, especially Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have well-developed air forces. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s air fleet is larger than Israel’s and Turkey’s combined. Yet, despite their capabilities, these states do not block Israel's attacks; on the contrary, they allow the use of their airspace and counter Iranian attacks with their own air defenses. So effectively, we’re seeing a collective system working in Israel’s favor.

Iran is left isolated, hoping that the China-Russia strategic axis would protect it from escalation. However, it seems Iran expected another round of minor clashes, not a full-scale war. The Iranian military and political elite were unprepared for a large-scale conflict. Their alliances proved hollow. Russia, both physically and materially, was unprepared to support Iran. I anticipated that Russia would abandon Iran at the critical moment — and it has.

– That naturally raises the question: is there a scenario in which Iran was "sold out" by its strategic partners? Could there have been a deal by China and Russia to sacrifice Iran — and at what cost?

If you look at Russia’s weakening position in recent years, it’s been “selling off” its foreign partners one after another. It handed over Central Asia to China, surrendered Armenia and now Syria to the Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance. Now it’s Iran’s turn.

Amid the war in Ukraine, Russia has become severely weakened. So, anyone looking to seize its geopolitical assets is acting quickly. The main question isn’t what Russia and China gained from abandoning Iran — the real issue is that Russia didn’t even dare to offer Iran the level of support that Iran provided to Russia in Ukraine.

Iran supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles — a significant contribution. In return, Russia has done nothing. Iranian media is full of accusations, saying Russia deceived and abandoned them. Iran even demanded the return of the "Shahed" drones it supplied, but Russia refused.

This is a case of strategic and total abandonment. Now imagine what could happen to Georgia if Russia treats its close partners like this. Georgian Russophiles must take this into serious consideration.

– Iran showed a willingness to negotiate, but Israel categorically rejected it. Why is Israel uninterested in diplomacy, and what are the US's strategic goals in this conflict?

We must understand that several geopolitical alignments are happening simultaneously. Grand strategy is always a combination of multiple strategies. What concerns us is the total expulsion of Russia from all geopolitical peripheries.

Over the past 3–4 years, Russia’s foreign assets have been completely wiped out. The West — and some in the East — have agreed that Georgia remains Russia's last area of influence. Regardless of how events unfold, Russia’s presence in West Asia has been eliminated.

Let’s recall the once-promoted three-point strategic partnership between Iran and Pakistan — it’s over. The idea of Saudi Arabia joining BRICS is dead. Trust in Russia has evaporated. Russian-Iranian and Russian-Asian relations are coming to an end.

– Could the effectiveness of Mossad operations in Iran be attributed to strong internal intelligence networks? Could this lead to a domestic political crisis, and would the US exploit such internal unrest?

Unlike Arab or other Asian societies, Iranians are highly determined people. They see themselves as European — part of the Aryan race. That’s why in 1935, Persia was renamed Iran, which means “Land of the Aryans.” They consider themselves the European Muslims, and fundamentalism is a challenge for them.

The Iranian people don’t want to live under Shiite rule — it’s a societal compromise with the clerical elite. However, is there currently a real resource for overthrowing the ruling elite? Not yet. But if the bombings continue at a massive scale, anything is possible.

Israeli air power is terrifying — it is almost twice as capable as Russia’s air force. While Russia can manage around 30–35 sorties per day in Ukraine, Israel launched 1,000 sorties over Iran in the first few days. This is a completely different kind of war, and every escalation scenario is realistic.

– What position should the Georgian government take to protect the country’s strategic interests?

The Georgian government should continue its neutral stance. Unlike Azerbaijan, which openly stated that it will not serve as a platform for attacks on Iran, or Armenia, which leans more toward Iran, Georgia remains silent — and that’s not a bad strategy.

Georgia is militarily the weakest country in the region and is not prepared for catastrophic developments. At this stage, maintaining neutrality is the safest approach.

– How might the conflict impact refugee flows in the South Caucasus, particularly in Georgia?

About three-quarters of Iran’s population lives in the north, where all major cities are located. So if a refugee crisis begins, the movement will be northward. Iranian sources report that 300,000 people are leaving Tehran daily. Nearly a million have already fled the capital.

We could see a wave of 10–12 million people. Fortunately, Georgia does not share a land border with Iran. Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely bear the initial impact. Azerbaijan, especially, as around 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran.

Georgia has maybe two weeks before it needs to develop a clear policy. We cannot handle a large influx. We can only accommodate limited, localized groups — perhaps ethnic Georgians from Fereydan and Tehran. The country lacks the resources for more.

Also, Iran voted against Georgia’s territorial integrity at the UN. That gives us political leeway. We can make an independent decision about refugee policy, and we should leverage that fact.

By Elza Paposhvili