Fate of visa liberalization depends on Ivanishvili’s political bargaining, expert Nika Chitadze

The possibility of the European Union suspending Georgia’s visa-free regime has become increasingly tangible. A formal letter from the EU outlining specific concerns has placed the Georgian government at a crossroads: will it comply with international obligations or attempt to rally public support around a sovereignty narrative?

Front News spoke with political analyst Nika Chitadze, who emphasized the pivotal role of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder and honorary chair of the ruling Georgian Dream party, internal political maneuvering, and the prospects of further straining relations with the United States.

Q: The EU’s warning about a potential suspension of visa-free travel has become more concrete. Given the letter containing specific concerns sent to the Georgian government, what course of action do you believe the ruling party might take?

Chitadze: Much will depend on Bidzina Ivanishvili - his personal decision-making and what he deems necessary. Initially, I expect the ruling party to deploy its usual propaganda line, claiming that visa liberalization comes at the cost of national sovereignty. They will likely invoke themes of peace, religion, and national values.

We’ve seen before that Ivanishvili responds to external pressure not with concessions but with more repression. Consider the recent legislative crackdown and the Western reaction. So, one possible scenario is that the government refuses to back down at first. However, I believe Ivanishvili will ultimately engage in behind-the-scenes bargaining in Brussels. He might offer to release political prisoners in exchange for EU recognition of the current parliament’s legitimacy.

Such informal negotiations could even involve diplomats - proposing that Georgia makes certain concessions if the EU softens its stance in return. This is political bargaining in action.

Q: Could the public’s reaction influence whether or not the government ultimately makes concessions? What role might the opposition play in this? Protests are expected on July 19.

Chitadze: Yes, public response will be critical. Much also depends on how effectively the opposition frames the issue and mobilizes people. The threat of losing visa-free travel could galvanize protests.

It’s possible that someone within the ruling elite may warn Ivanishvili that continuing down this path could be politically damaging. He will certainly factor in the potential for unrest and public backlash. Yet again, I expect the government to use its propaganda machine to portray visa liberalization as a threat to sovereignty.

Whether the public buys into this narrative is another matter. Interestingly, those most likely to be affected by a suspension - businesspeople, public officials, and their families - are closely aligned with Georgian Dream. Many of them regularly travel to Europe for leisure or family visits. Moreover, a significant portion of remittances - 44% - comes from EU countries like Greece, Germany, and Italy.

So, while propaganda will be strong, the ruling party is in a dilemma: making concessions could weaken its hold on power; refusing them could deepen dissatisfaction and public anger.

Q: There have been noticeable internal shifts within Georgian Dream, including major personnel changes. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has even publicly accused former allies of corruption. Are we witnessing genuine anti-corruption reform, or is this a power struggle?

Chitadze: This is not a genuine anti-corruption campaign. What we are seeing is an attempt by Kobakhidze to prove his loyalty to Ivanishvili. By targeting figures close to former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili - whose appointees and business allies benefited under his tenure - Kobakhidze is positioning himself as a loyal enforcer.

However, Ivanishvili is known for being highly distrustful. There’s no guarantee he won’t turn on Kobakhidze as well. That’s why the current Prime Minister is doing everything he can to present himself as untainted by wealth or corruption, unlike Garibashvili.

At the same time, Kobakhidze is consolidating power. Harsh legislation, heavy fines on protesters - these are tactics aimed at silencing dissent. He is feeding Ivanishvili’s suspicions, painting others as corrupt and justifying his actions as necessary. For now, this has earned him Ivanishvili’s backing.

Q: Regarding relations with the United States - some had hoped that a Donald Trump presidency might improve ties. However, outgoing US Ambassador Robin Dunnigan recently criticized a letter Kobakhidze sent to Trump. Do you see any realistic prospect of a reset with Washington?

Chitadze: Realistically, no. Especially now that US-Russia relations are strained, Washington’s attention toward the South Caucasus has only increased. Trump may have once sought a détente with Russia, which could have made him more lenient toward developments in Georgia. But that’s no longer the case.

Trump is now focused on the South Caucasus for strategic reasons - he wants to secure influence over the Zangezur Corridor and help mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a result, Georgia’s geopolitical significance is rising.

In this context, a Georgian government that continues to use anti-American rhetoric is unlikely to be acceptable, even under a Trump administration. If anything, US motivation to impose sanctions on the Georgian Dream government will only increase.

By Elza Paposhvili