Expert Sakvarelidze on Georgia’s political turmoil: investigations, arrests, and opposition strategies

Amid the work of the temporary investigative commission, several opposition politicians have already been detained, with others, including Georgia’s fifth president, Salome Zourabichvili, expected to be summoned. Some view the process as an attempt by the government to consolidate power, while the opposition sees it as political retribution. At the same time, some opposition leaders are pushing for a new strategy, while the government emphasizes internal stability. Political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze discusses these developments with Front News, analyzing public reaction, political discourse, and the role of international actors.

– The work of the temporary investigative commission, according to the opposition, has become extremely politicized, and there is now an expectation that the criminal prosecution of opposition leaders will become widespread. Nine politicians, including President Salome Zourabichvili, may be summoned. How would you assess this process – where is the line between lawful investigation and political repression?

– Even from the opposition’s own statements, it’s clear that they lack legal arguments and instead claim these summonses are purely politically motivated. The Georgian public still clearly remembers those nine years and understands what injustice means. Everyone has seen political leaders being arrested and tortured in prison. In this context, how can the public believe that these individuals are political prisoners?

Gvaramia has already been arrested once and released without harm. Now he voluntarily went to prison – why? Because he knows he’ll sit there briefly and “rest.” They’ve made countless promises to people and broken them. Disillusioned voters have nothing left but disappointment. Now, having run out of options, they are staging their own arrests.

Today the opposition insists these arrests are politically motivated, but after so many lies and betrayals, why should the public trust them? The opposition fails to understand that such blatant lies are no longer effective or acceptable to Georgians. Their statements are losing impact.

– Then what do you think is the government’s strategic goal – eliminating opponents, intimidating society, or consolidating power ahead of elections?

– The government's message is unequivocal – to restore order. But the question is, why now? Disorder has taken on a political character. Opposition figures are openly showing the public that state institutions mean nothing to them. This is a deliberate campaign to discredit the state.

In other countries, such behavior is punished harshly. The opposition is trying to turn the public against the state, but there’s no visible result – very few people are joining the protests.

Nevertheless, it’s possible that this scenario is partly inspired by the West. As soon as someone is arrested, Western politicians issue statements that same evening. But if Georgian Dream arrests no one, there’s no basis for those statements. That’s why the opposition is orchestrating these situations to then appeal to the West for punishment of the government.

– The opposition is attempting to adopt a new strategy. Zurab Japaridze has proposed a platform for all citizens who support regime change. Elene Khoshtaria has gone on hunger strike and called for revolution. Aleko Elisashvili has urged unity around President Zourabichvili. How would you assess these initiatives – are they real mechanisms or symbolic protests?

– I would advise Japaridze and the others to ask the public directly whether they want Georgian Dream replaced by the UNM or its offshoots. Elisashvili has addressed Saakashvili directly, even proposing a handshake. Japaridze himself was active during the UNM period. Melia, Gvaramia, and other leaders are mostly associated with that political force.

They can change names all they want, but people don’t forget. They should pose a direct question – does the public want to replace Georgian Dream with the UNM? And they should also ask a third question – who wants neither UNM nor Georgian Dream?

The opposition has not won a single election in years. Isn’t that the public’s answer? Where’s the proof of rigging?

That’s why their arrests don’t stir much reaction. The fact that people don’t protest these arrests speaks volumes. Repeating the same thing over and over is precisely why they’ve failed.

– The team around Giorgi Gakharia is also in crisis – revocation of 12 MPs’ mandates is being discussed, and the former PM is outside the country. Do you think he’ll return to politics or withdraw?

– It’s hard to predict Gakharia’s decision. Perhaps at this stage, he doesn’t see a need to return.

The situation is unclear for him as well – he doesn’t share much with the opposition. If he doesn’t run in the elections, his supporters will likely shift to other opposition forces.

There is also discussion about Lelo, which may still participate. Ultimately, what matters is the party’s activity, not the individual. Whether Gakharia returns or stays abroad, his party can continue to function independently and compete in the elections.

– Prime Minister Kobakhidze has stated that Georgia will reassess its relationship with the US and is preparing a roadmap. Do you see this as a shift in foreign policy or a signal aimed at domestic politics?

– I think such statements, especially when made daily, primarily target local voters. However, naturally, they make noise on the international level as well, so the US is aware that Georgia’s government is open to cooperation.

But I don’t foresee real confrontation at this stage. The US hasn’t even finalized its position toward China yet. Until that settles, decisions regarding Georgia will be difficult.

– We’ve heard many critical statements from the EU and the US, but there’s been little real action. In your opinion, do these messages influence the government, and is there any real deterrent today?

– The West has long faced a dilemma – whether or not to confront Georgian Dream. They see that Georgian Dream isn’t backing down.

So the question is, is open confrontation wise? The neutral stance of the public and the government’s stability has shown that removing Georgian Dream from power isn’t easy. That’s why the West is cautious – it can’t take radical steps, but it also can’t completely abandon its rhetoric.

The opposition seeks help, but the West is reverting to old tactics – continuing pressure in the form of statements without real action. This is the essence of the current political game.

By Elza Paposhvili