Three Pacific military flashpoints could shape Biden’s China strategy

Any suggestion that the departure of former US President Donald Trump from Washington would provide a temporary pause in US-China tensions has been swiftly dispelled.

In the short time since President Joe Biden was sworn into office, China has flown more than two dozen combat aircraft near to the self-ruled island of Taiwan and passed a law allowing its coast guard to fire on foreign vessels. Meanwhile, the US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier strike group into the South China Sea.

Analysts say such moves are likely only the beginning of what is expected to be a potentially uneasy initial relationship between the new Biden administration and Beijing.

"China often uses a series of 'tests' to determine a competitor's intentions or willingness to respond to China's actions," said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center.

Next steps from Beijing could include large-scale military exercises near Taiwan or in the South China Sea, or stopping foreign vessels in the name of enforcing Chinese maritime regulations, Schuster said.

Beijing will be trying to determine where the Biden administration's "red lines" are, added Schuster.

But incoming Biden Cabinet secretaries have made clear where his administration will stand on Chinese territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific.

"I think China is our most challenging, our most significant challenge going forward," new Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin told his confirmation hearing last week.

The Defense Department would focus on convincing China, or any adversary, that taking on the US military would be "a very bad idea,"- Austin said.