Armenia's election a geopolitical referendum, analyst Gordadze

Armenia's upcoming parliamentary election has become a de facto geopolitical referendum on the country's future direction, political analyst and academic Tornike Gordadze said on Friday.

Speaking ahead of the vote scheduled for 7 June, Gordadze said the election would give Armenian voters what he described as a genuine political choice for the first time, with significant implications for the country's foreign policy orientation.

"Everyone describes this election as a geopolitical referendum," he said. "For the first time, Armenia has an opportunity to make a political choice."

Gordadze, a researcher and professor at the Sciences Po, argued that Russia has historically exercised extensive influence over Armenia, including within its military and security institutions.

He added concerns over security and the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh led Armenia to surrender a significant degree of sovereignty in exchange for Russian support.

He said Moscow had long justified its regional role by arguing that its presence was necessary to prevent renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

However, Gordadze argued that this narrative has weakened following efforts by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to normalise relations with Azerbaijan.

"Russia's argument that war would return without its involvement is no longer as effective because, in practice, Pashinyan has managed to establish peace with Azerbaijan," Gordadze said.

He also claimed that in recent weeks Russian officials and politicians aligned with Moscow have increasingly warned of potential tensions between Armenia and Russia if Yerevan continues its current course.

According to Gordadze, such rhetoric reflected growing difficulties for Russia in maintaining its traditional influence over Armenia.