UK intelligence: Russia on tack for record military losses in 2025

Russia is approaching a new peak in battlefield losses, and 2025 could become its deadliest year yet in the war against Ukraine, according to an assessment released by British intelligence.

Analysts estimate that since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Moscow has suffered around 950,000 military casualties, including both killed and wounded personnel. In just the first four months of 2025, Russian forces have reportedly lost approximately 160,000 troops.

“If this rate of loss continues through the rest of the year, 2025 will become the most costly year of the war in terms of casualties, extending the year-on-year trend of increasing losses,” the intelligence report stated.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia’s average daily losses in April 2025 exceeded 1,200 personnel, amounting to around 36,000 casualties over the month. In March, daily losses were even higher—around 1,300 per day. The heaviest toll came at the end of 2024, when daily losses neared 1,600 as Russia launched intensified offensives to seize new territory.

Despite the scale of the losses, the UK’s intelligence report notes that Russia has failed to convert these high casualty rates into meaningful battlefield gains in 2025.