Analyst Dzabiradze on power struggles in Georgia: Who’s really in charge?

Political developments and staff reshuffles in Georgia are once again raising questions about who really makes the key decisions in the country – the government, the prime minister, or still Bidzina Ivanishvili. Analyst Vakhtang Dzabiradze spoke to Front News about the reasons for the recent government changes, the strengthening of Irakli Kobakhidze, the government’s future strategies, and the dilemma facing the opposition.

– In recent days, we have seen a number of significant staff changes. What do you think these decisions are related to, and how do you assess the current developments?

– One version being discussed is that people close to Ivanishvili are leaving his government team. There’s another version too – that a new government is being formed, though it’s still hard to say for sure what Ivanishvili will ultimately decide. For now, it seems the new government is not fully sanctioned, so they’re somewhat free in this regard. This circumstance could be one of the reasons for the changes. However, this doesn’t exclude the possibility that if needed, Ivanishvili will bring back the people he relies on.

Another key question is how much these new figures will actually obey Kobakhidze. The prime minister’s position has strengthened to some extent – especially if we consider the interior minister to be a more neutral figure. This is important to assess Kobakhidze’s influence. In the future, he could become decisive in who will fully take the reins of power.

– Do you believe that Irakli Kobakhidze is still coordinating all these decisions with Bidzina Ivanishvili?

– I have no doubt about that. Kobakhidze coordinates every step with Ivanishvili. But this coordination doesn’t fundamentally change the reality. If we assume that the new people indeed follow Kobakhidze and carry out his orders, Ivanishvili himself might find himself facing a difficult situation.

In authoritarian systems, it often happens that total loyalty to the top figure leads to that person fully taking over control. History, especially from the Soviet system, shows us that the most loyal group around the first person always regains power. If today the government recognizes Kobakhidze as the top figure, for Ivanishvili this might be the beginning of a problem.

That’s why for now I can’t say definitively what policy the government will continue with. I don’t rule out that Ivanishvili really did give Kobakhidze a temporary carte blanche to resolve the ongoing crisis in the country. If that doesn’t work out, the issue of replacing him could also arise.

Resolving this crisis has two paths – either through improving relations with the West, or through internal repression. So far, it seems the government is trying to choose the repressive path.

– If these repressions don’t work and relations with the West can’t be restored, how realistic is it that Ivanishvili will bring in a new team or call early elections?

– Yes, if the repressions don’t work, I wouldn’t rule out that we could see a new team in power. But before talking about early elections, we have to consider the context of the Russia-Ukraine war – how events unfold and whether there’s any ceasefire. I don’t expect any major decisions to be made by the end of this year.

Trump has completely upended international politics. We’re just hearing promises from him, and I don’t think those will lead to real results. That’s why there are so many factors to consider, making it hard to predict when or how Ivanishvili will make his decisions. For now, he still hopes he can handle the situation.

– How do you assess the opposition’s strategy in this tough situation? It’s clear that public trust in them has decreased. Salome Zourabichvili has called on the West for even harsher sanctions. Does this strategy look like an effective tactic?

– At this stage, the opposition no longer has real influence over the public. No matter what they say on TV, even if all four leading parties launch a joint protest movement, it won’t get real support from society.

Adding to that is the uncertainty within the opposition itself regarding the upcoming local elections – whether they will participate, whether they’ll pay the required deposits, and so on. This ambiguity is damaging to the opposition itself. Part of the opposition sees the elections just as a way to get seats, but in reality, it’s a way to mobilize their own voters.

Today, the opposition has little influence over its own electorate. Creating a new reality requires a significant breakthrough, which can only happen by mobilizing voters – and this should be done through local elections. But the opposition is missing this chance.

– The opposition argues that by participating in elections, they’re giving the government legitimacy and that this will be used for propaganda. Do you find this argument valid?

– The opposition has at least achieved one important thing – international partners are well aware of what’s going on in Georgia. So if the opposition can explain to the people why participation in local elections is essential, they can still mobilize voters.

Moreover, it’s crucial to agree on joint candidates in big cities. In that case, there’s a real chance for victory in cities like Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Telavi, and others – despite possible attempts at election fraud.

Let’s not forget that on October 26, 2024, we already saw this reality. That’s why local elections are an essential lever for the opposition. If they let the government take control of all local authorities without any resistance, the opposition’s position will become even more difficult. The government already feels very comfortable in a one-party parliament and wants the same scenario at the local level too.

By Elza Paposhvili