Conflict Expert: China dictates terms to Putin, not other way around

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demands that Russia also agree to a 30-day ceasefire. According to him, the US supports this position. “Setting any conditions means a desire to prolong the war and derail diplomacy. The ceasefire must be comprehensive: in the air, at sea, and on land,” Zelenskyy stated.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking at a joint press conference in Kyiv with the leaders of France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, warned that if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire, sanctions will be intensified and military support for Ukraine will be increased.

Are negotiations on the war in Ukraine at a dead end, and what kind of policy might Trump pursue to end the war? Conflictologist Zurab Bendianishvili discusses these and other topics in an interview with Front News.

– Trump’s foreign policy seems to have stalled globally. He failed to win the tariff war, and now many say Trump clearly lost that battle. There’s no progress in negotiations with Iran either. The Hamas issue remains unresolved. Meanwhile, conflict has erupted between India and Pakistan. How do you assess Trump’s current foreign policy?

– Trump's biggest mistake in foreign policy was abandoning America’s allies. That’s why we are now seeing the consequences unfold across various regions of the world—he was left without support from the EU and other partners. I believe even Trump now realizes this and is being forced to reassess his strategy. He sees that Russia and China are more cunning than he is. Dividing them is impossible. As a result, Trump would have no choice but to return to his old policy path. Otherwise, the US will lose its role as a global hegemon—a role that was always reinforced by its allies. So now, he's in the process of trying to restore those alliances. Without partnerships with the EU and NATO, he won’t succeed. He must return to the negotiation tables that include Ukraine and Europe—where they can defend their own interests. That’s the way forward when it comes to Ukraine. We already see that the US has resumed weapons deliveries to Ukraine. That means Trump’s foreign plan didn’t work and actually led to a dead end. I believe and hope he will now try to solve problems on our continent in cooperation with Europe.

– European leaders are pushing Russia toward a 30-day ceasefire. There have been statements about this, but China has backed Russia. It’s very likely that the Ukraine-Russia war will continue with China’s help. Could this become an instrument of pressure in the economic war against Trump and the EU?

– China’s main trading partner is the EU, and I haven’t seen any signs that this relationship is being reconsidered. On the contrary, there are discussions about opening a new corridor to connect with China. That’s why Xi Jinping went to Russia—to demonstrate just how much influence China now holds over the Kremlin. Today, China is dictating terms to Putin, not the other way around. Of course, Xi’s visit was driven by that interest. The full story hasn’t surfaced yet, but even in the case of the Anaklia terminal, there are serious disagreements between China and Russia. This visit was a clear signal that there’s a separate power bloc in the world—not just Europe and the US as global leaders.

– Trump has already agreed that China should be part of the negotiations over Ukraine. What kind of geopolitical game are we witnessing? Has Trump lost his dominance in resolving this war?

– Trump realized that his word is not the only or ultimate one in this world. In other words, America cannot guarantee or dominate the end of this war alone. Trump had commercial and mercantile interests. He openly talked about big economic plans with Russia. Later, he signed agreements with Ukraine on mineral resources. None of it produced results. In that sense, I think bringing China into the process is a very good thing. China is not trying to gain influence in Ukraine. Where conflict exists, China is not seeking to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty. On the contrary, China acknowledges its territorial integrity. Russia, on the other hand, is far more dependent on China and must take it into account. If Russia doesn’t care about the EU and mocks its energy dependence, it won’t be able to ignore a joint front between China and the US. Especially since China respects the territorial integrity of all nations—because it faces similar challenges itself.

– Do you expect Trump to change his rhetoric on the war in Ukraine in the near future? This expectation emerged after he made staff changes and issued several threats toward Russia. What kind of change might we see?

– I think we’re already seeing a shift in his rhetoric. But there are limits. As long as America tries to play the role of mediator in this war, it won’t be able to maintain that rhetoric for long—it will be constrained. Putin’s military campaign is reaching a point where every side must align with their own circle. That means the US and Russia will once again find themselves in opposing camps, just like before. Trump merely created the illusion that he stood above it all and could bring order. But now the outlines are clear: Trump alone cannot outsmart the combined cunning of China and Russia.

By Elza Paposhvili