Georgia’s political landscape may undergo a radical shift starting March 31, with the possibility of a large, unified opposition front emerging. This new alliance is expected to include political parties, civil society representatives, and well-known public figures, with former President Salome Zourabichvili at the helm. According to media reports, Zourabichvili began discussions with opposition parties on March 14, holding individual meetings with their leaders.
But how realistic is the opposition’s unification, and could Zourabichvili truly lead it? Will opposition parties agree to such leadership, and what impact would this have on the country’s political landscape? In an interview with Front News, conflict analyst Mamuka Areshidze shares his perspective on domestic and foreign policy issues.
– According to media reports, former President Salome Zourabichvili is meeting with opposition leaders to announce a major unity initiative at the March 31 protest. Do you think the opposition will accept her as their leader? The ruling Georgian Dream party claims she is acting under Western directives. Is she indeed a Western-backed leader?
– Absolutely. I don’t believe Zourabichvili is acting alone. There is significant Western interest in Georgia, especially from the European Parliament and Eastern European countries. I think she is indeed a leader supported by the West. At the same time, we should not ignore her personal ambitions—she is someone who enjoys being at the center of events. Whether she has been successful in this over the years is another question. Even during Saakashvili’s rule, she attempted to position herself as a unifying opposition leader, but it did not work out.
Now, she is trying the same strategy again, and I am sure that without Western backing, she would not have even gotten this far. If the opposition has been given collective instructions from the West, it might succeed. Some Western politicians see the need to repackage the United National Movement (UNM). They know that UNM has a loyal but limited voter base that is unlikely to expand. Thus, they want to blend it into a broader coalition so that it doesn’t remain the main focus of public attention. This doesn’t mean they don’t want UNM in politics—it’s just that their controversial past makes it difficult to return them to power. They aim to mask UNM within a coalition with other political forces. It’s also evident that the fragmented opposition has been ineffective. They have failed to gain credibility, even among the people currently protesting in the streets.
– What kind of support does Salome Zourabichvili have inside Georgia? She has connections abroad, but who supports her domestically? What kind of leader has she become?
– She does have some level of support. Many protesters reject the United National Movement and its offshoots, so they see Zourabichvili as a more acceptable alternative. Her recent activism has gained her some new supporters. During the presidential election, she only won with the backing of Georgian Dream. Later, when she made her famous remark about “the brutes leaving, not arriving”, she hinted at forming a new political force. I was at the Hippodrome at the time, and I remember the massive crowd that gathered. However, she lost that support within a month because she lacked organizational skills.
– Some speculate that Salome Zourabichvili is attempting to replace Mikheil Saakashvili. Do you agree with this theory?
– Absolutely. Saakashvili is no longer the kind of leader the West would bet on, as he has lost influence in Georgia. Western leaders played a role in his political downfall, as they did not fully support him due to his past crimes. They know that his popularity has significantly declined, and they are aware of how the Georgian public perceives him. As a result, they have started looking for a new leader. However, the West is searching for a charismatic leader—someone who can mobilize the masses. No opposition leader in Georgia has successfully assumed this role, despite some possessing a degree of charisma. Furthermore, opposition unity is an illusion—publicly, they pretend to be united, but behind the scenes, they undermine and betray each other.
If Zourabichvili’s leadership is a Western directive, the opposition may be forced to unite around her. However, this does not guarantee success. As I mentioned earlier, she lacks organizational abilities and the capacity to build a strong political party.
– On March 14, after a long pause, Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili met with the US Ambassador. The opposition initially criticized the ambassador but later suggested that he presented Georgian Dream with an ultimatum from the Trump administration. How realistic is this claim, and what do you think the meeting was about?
– Since we have limited information about the meeting, it’s difficult to speculate. However, I did know that our Foreign Minister had planned to visit the US. Seeing the meeting photos was unexpected. I wouldn’t be surprised if the US Ambassador focused on Georgia’s stance on Central Asia and China, rather than opposition claims about early elections. The US may be pushing for Georgia’s foreign policy to align more closely with Washington’s interests.
Regarding domestic politics, I don’t think there were significant discussions. The Trump administration does not have a unified stance on Georgia’s political situation. This is evident from the repeated delays in discussing the “Georgia Friendship Act.”
– Unlike the US, the European Union and the European Parliament have taken a more aggressive stance, demanding snap elections. What impact will this have on Georgia’s internal politics?
– The EU is in a catastrophic state today. Without US leadership, its policies have proven weak and directionless. The EU has no coherent approach or military doctrine. French President Macron’s idea of a “nuclear umbrella” was laughable—even a combined British and French nuclear arsenal is only a fraction of Russia’s capabilities. The EU is not prepared to lead global politics, and its statements have little impact on Georgia’s domestic affairs. Therefore, the EU’s statement does not influence Georgia’s domestic issues.
– Putin recently made ambiguous statements about a 30-day ceasefire, while Trump has expressed hope that Putin will agree to one. What is your expectation?
– Putin’s strategy is simple: a ruler must never appear defeated. Otherwise, they risk being overthrown. Putin is trying to maneuver carefully to maintain his image. He is a skilled negotiator, an experienced politician, and a long-time leader of a vast country. Putin sees only two real rivals: the US and China. He has never taken Europe seriously. He also considers Turkey a regional adversary, despite occasional cooperation.
Putin desperately needs a ceasefire—but on his terms. He has issues to resolve in the region and must counter Turkey’s growing influence. He also wants to restore his previous relationship with China, as he has now become Beijing’s junior partner—something he wants to change.
– If neither Russia nor Ukraine concedes, how do you see the ceasefire negotiations playing out?
–This is all part of the game. Politics is nothing without maneuvering and playing the game. Both Trump and Putin are doing exactly that. If Russia concedes nothing, then Ukraine will concede nothing either. In politics, what is said is not always what is done. What Trump is doing now is a classic PR strategy. He is constantly on the offensive, keeping his opponent in a defensive position. Eventually, the opponent realizes what is happening, but by then, time has passed, and the initiative remains on Trump’s side. Trump needs a ceasefire to show the rest of the world that his word carries weight and has value. If Putin refuses to make concessions, then Trump will activate the sanctions system.
Elza Paposhvili
