Former Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli under the United National Movement Government, on Wednesday claimed the outcome of the 2008 war with Russia “should have been clear” to then-President Mikheil Saakashvili, “given the significant imbalance in military capabilities between Georgia and its northern neighbor”.
Speaking before the parliamentary temporary investigative commission looking into alleged crimes by the UNM authorities between 2003-2012, Nogaideli emphasized that “any rational leader would have recognized the inevitable result of the conflict, based on Georgia’s limited resources and Russia’s overwhelming strength.”
“Considering the resources at our disposal and the capabilities of our adversary, it should have been clear to the president what the outcome would be,” Nogaideli said. “It’s not about what we had the right to do, but about what was realistically achievable and what would have been harmful to the country.”
Nogaideli further explained that, despite the country’s right to take action, the primary concern should have been a realistic assessment of Georgia’s military capacity compared to Russia’s formidable forces. “Any rational leader, even an irrational one, would have come to the logical conclusion that going to war was harmful to Georgia,” he added.
The former PM also reflected on earlier tensions within the government, specifically in 2006, following the resignation of then-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili. He described a critical moment when the resignation led to increased tensions in the now Russian-occupied Tskhinvali region, which almost resulted in an armed conflict.
Nogaideli recounted how the situation was defused only after a “heated argument” with Saakashvili.
“In 2006, after Okruashvili’s resignation, tensions in Tskhinvali almost led us to an armed conflict, but we were able to avoid it after a quarrel and persuasion with the president,” Nogaideli claimed.
He compared the 2006 situation to the 2008 war, highlighting that both conflicts were preventable. “In 2006, we saw tensions rising, and we managed to prevent a crisis. The same should have been done in 2008,” he explained, highlighting his belief that the war with Russia could have been avoided through better judgment and diplomacy.
